Moderate Drought Creeping Its Way Into The RoCo

It has certainly been a crazy year for us with the weather here in Rowan County. We are currently sitting on 45.06 inches of rainfall officially for the year. This puts on 4.75 inches above normal for the year. However, we are still experiencing abnormally dry conditions through most of the county while the southeast corner of the county near the Gold Hill area is in a Moderate Drought. 

Now I know you are asking. How can we be above normal but still have drought conditions around the county? Well you have to start with what is normal precipitation. How do you determine that? The answer is. "Normal" precipitation does not equal "what you should expect." "Normal" precipitation is an average of the precipitation values over a 30-year period. Precipitation may very often be either well above or well below the seasonal average, or "normal."

The next thing is how do you determine if there is a drought? While it is relatively easy to define what a hurricane or earthquake is, defining a drought is more subjective. Droughts do not have the immediate effects of floods, but sustained droughts can cause economic stress throughout an area. The word "drought" has various meanings, depending on a person's perspective. To a farmer, a drought is a period of moisture deficiency that affects the crops under cultivation—even two weeks without rainfall can stress many crops during certain periods of the growing cycle. To a meteorologist, a drought is a prolonged period when precipitation is less than normal. To a water manager, a drought is a deficiency in water supply that affects water availability and water quality. To a hydrologist, a drought is an extended period of decreased precipitation and streamflow.

So here's have we have gotten there. Based on normal rainfall totals if you take into account from the beginning of October to the end of day yesterday December 13th, 2017 We are 4.47 inches below normal for rainfall. The way we get out of the drought is when we start to see rainfall totals for a period of time above normal for the deficit. So even though we are above normal for the year we are below normal over the past few months. You would need to look at it this way. You use water everyday in some way shape or form. However, it does not rain everyday. So the deficit begins to outweigh the above normal totals for the year quickly. 

Looking ahead to the next 30 days we are looking fairly dry for the first half of that period with some rainfall coming near the end of the period. We could see things get worse before they get better based on current model data. I will of course keep you updated right here and on social media as conditions change and update from the Climate Center. As always thank you for following Rowan County Weather!