Saturday Is Looking Better — But a Developing Gulf System Could Influence Sunday’s Weather

If you have outdoor plans this weekend, there is some encouraging news in the latest forecast trends.

Saturday is looking increasingly likely to remain usable across Rowan County and the surrounding region, while the better opportunity for rain continues to shift toward Saturday night and Sunday.

At the same time, Rowan County Weather is closely monitoring a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that could eventually play a role in our weekend weather.

There are still plenty of questions to answer before we know exactly how much of an impact that system will have on our region.

SATURDAY IS TRENDING BETTER

One of the more important changes in the forecast over the past couple of days has been the timing of the moisture returning to the Carolinas.

Earlier guidance offered the possibility that rain could begin affecting portions of the region during Saturday. The latest trends have generally slowed that progression.

Right now, much of Saturday could remain rain-free.

For Rowan County, I’m currently carrying only around a 20% chance of rain during the daytime Saturday. Chances are even lower in portions of Davie, Davidson and Cabarrus counties based on the latest trends.

That doesn’t guarantee a completely rain-free Saturday, and the forecast can certainly change between now and the weekend. But at this point, I would not consider Saturday a washout.

If you have outdoor plans Saturday, there is no reason based on the current forecast to cancel them.

SUNDAY IS THE DAY TO WATCH

The forecast becomes more complicated Saturday night.

Moisture is expected to increase across the Carolinas, allowing rain chances to climb. Sunday currently appears to offer the better opportunity for widespread rain across the region.

For Rowan County, I’m currently around a 60% chance of rain Sunday.

Temperatures should also turn cooler beneath increased cloud cover and rain, with afternoon highs struggling to get much beyond the upper 60s to around 70 degrees in some locations.

Exactly when the rain begins, how long it lasts and how much falls are all questions that remain unresolved.

That uncertainty is closely connected to what happens hundreds of miles away in the Gulf of Mexico.

WHAT’S HAPPENING IN THE GULF?

A disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is being monitored for tropical development.

Environmental conditions are expected to support additional organization, and a tropical depression could develop as the system moves generally east-northeastward before eventually turning more toward the north.

That makes the eventual track important for the Southeast.

But there is an important distinction to make:

A developing tropical system in the Gulf does not mean a tropical storm or hurricane is headed for Rowan County.

At this stage, there is still considerable uncertainty concerning exactly where the system travels, how strong it becomes and how it interacts with the larger weather pattern across the southeastern United States.

WHY THE TRACK MATTERS TO US

Even if the center of a tropical system remains well away from our region, it can still influence our weather.

The circulation around the system could help transport deeper tropical moisture northward from the Gulf and toward the Carolinas.

How much moisture reaches us will depend heavily on the eventual track of the system and the position of other weather features across the eastern United States.

One scenario could bring a substantial plume of moisture into the Carolinas and produce a wetter Sunday.

Another could keep the deepest tropical moisture farther away, leaving us with a much more ordinary period of showers.

There are still enough differences in the guidance that choosing one of those outcomes with confidence would be premature.

NO RAINFALL TOTALS YET

You may begin seeing individual computer models showing specific rainfall amounts over the next several days.

I’m not ready to put much weight into those numbers.

Until the Gulf system becomes better organized and its eventual track becomes clearer, rainfall projections across our region can change considerably from one model run to another.

There will be a time to discuss rainfall totals if they become necessary. We’re not there yet.

BEFORE THE WEEKEND

We have several days of quiet weather before any of this becomes an issue.

High pressure will dominate our weather through much of the workweek.

Tuesday will be cooler, with afternoon temperatures only reaching the lower 70s across much of the region. Tonight will be chilly, with many locations falling into the 40s.

Then temperatures rebound quickly.

Wednesday should reach the upper 70s before lower to middle 80s return Thursday. Friday remains warm and mostly dry with temperatures around 80 degrees.

So while we’re getting a nice taste of fall today and tonight, warmer weather isn't finished with us yet.

THE BOTTOM LINE

For now, there are four things I want you to take away from the forecast:

Saturday is looking better, and I would not call it a washout.

Rain chances increase Saturday night.

Sunday currently looks like the better opportunity for rain.

And the developing system in the Gulf remains the biggest variable in determining exactly what our weekend eventually looks like.

There is no reason for alarm, and there is no reason to change weekend plans based solely on the Gulf system right now.

This is simply something that needs to be watched.

As the system becomes better organized and newer guidance comes in, confidence in the weekend forecast should improve considerably.

Rowan County Weather will continue monitoring the trends and adjusting the forecast as we get closer to the weekend.