Don’t Cancel Saturday Plans Yet — What We Know About This Weekend’s Rain

If you have outdoor plans around Rowan County this Saturday, there is no reason to cancel them based on the forecast right now.

Rain is expected to return to the region this weekend, but the latest forecast continues to suggest that Saturday could be the better of the two weekend days, with the more significant rain chances holding off until Saturday night and Sunday.

That timing is far from locked in, however.

A Dry Workweek Comes First

Before we get to the weekend, Rowan County has several days of quiet weather ahead.

After clouds gradually give way to sunshine Monday, dry weather is expected to continue Tuesday through Friday. Tuesday will be the coolest day of the workweek with a high around 71 degrees, followed by a chilly Tuesday night with temperatures falling into the mid-40s.

Temperatures then climb again, reaching the mid-70s Wednesday and around 82 degrees Thursday before settling back into the upper 70s Friday.

There are no meaningful rain chances during that stretch.

Why Rain Returns This Weekend

The weather pattern begins changing as we approach the weekend.

An upper-level system developing over Texas is expected to lift northward while an upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic builds toward the Southeast. At the same time, a frontal boundary will begin moving northward from the Gulf Coast as an area of low pressure develops over the western Gulf.

Together, these features should begin pulling increasing amounts of Gulf moisture northward into the Carolinas.

Eventually, that moisture should be enough to bring showers back to Rowan County.

The big question is exactly when.

Saturday Is Not A Washout Right Now

There is still disagreement among forecast models regarding how quickly the moisture reaches our area.

Some of the guidance keeps Rowan County dry through Saturday, with showers not arriving until Saturday night. Other guidance is somewhat faster and could bring showers into the area Saturday afternoon.

That's an important difference for anyone with outdoor events, festivals, weddings, sporting events or other Saturday plans.

At this point, I would not call Saturday a washout.

In fact, Saturday currently looks like the better day of the weekend. The morning and potentially a good portion of the afternoon could remain dry if the slower solutions prove correct.

But we're still several days away, and even a difference of six to twelve hours in the arrival of moisture could have a significant impact on Saturday plans.

Sunday Looks More Unsettled

Confidence is somewhat higher that moisture will be firmly established across the region by Sunday.

That makes Sunday the day with the greater potential for widespread rain, along with thicker cloud cover and cooler temperatures.

Exactly how much rain falls is something we'll have to determine later. At this point, the more important part of the forecast is establishing when the rain begins rather than trying to pin down rainfall totals several days in advance.

What Should You Do With Saturday Plans?

For now, keep them.

There simply isn't enough evidence in the forecast to justify canceling Saturday activities based on rain.

If you have something scheduled Saturday morning, the forecast currently looks encouraging. Confidence becomes lower as we move later into Saturday, particularly Saturday afternoon and evening.

Anyone with an outdoor event should continue checking the forecast throughout the week as the timing becomes clearer.

The Bottom Line

Rowan County will enjoy a dry workweek before the weather pattern begins changing this weekend.

Saturday is not currently expected to be a washout. The better forecast guidance favors dry conditions lasting through much, and potentially all, of the daytime hours before rain chances increase Saturday night.

A faster arrival Saturday afternoon remains possible.

Sunday currently looks like the wetter and more unsettled day of the weekend.

There's plenty of time for the timing to change, and I'll be watching each new round of forecast data closely throughout the week.

For now, don't cancel those Saturday plans.