Is Today a Washout? Here’s When Rain and Storms Are Most Likely

If you have outdoor plans across the Rowan County Weather region today, seeing rain chances as high as 90% might make you think the entire day is a washout.

That isn’t necessarily the case.

Saturday will certainly become increasingly unsettled, and everyone across Rowan, Davie, Davidson and Cabarrus counties should be prepared for rain. But the timing and coverage will vary across the region, and there should be opportunities for dry breaks before showers and thunderstorms become more widespread.

The Main Message: Rain Chances Increase Through the Day

A front dropping south across the region will be the trigger for showers and thunderstorms today.

The general trend will be for rain coverage to increase as we move through the afternoon and evening. That means earlier today offers the better opportunity for outdoor activities, while plans later this afternoon and evening become increasingly weather-dependent.

It is also important to remember what a 90% rain chance means. It does not mean it will rain for 90% of the day. It means there is a very high likelihood that a location will receive measurable precipitation during the forecast period.

There can still be substantial breaks between showers and thunderstorms.

Rowan County

Rowan County has one of the higher rain chances today at 90%.

Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly numerous through the afternoon, with showers and possibly a thunderstorm expected after 2 PM.

The high will be near 79 degrees.

If you have outdoor plans in Rowan County, the earlier portion of the day offers the better opportunity. By mid-to-late afternoon, I would plan around the possibility of showers and thunderstorms.

Heavy downpours will be possible with some storms, but the severe weather threat remains relatively low.

Davie County

Davie County has a little more opportunity to get through part of Saturday before rain becomes widespread.

There is a chance of showers this morning, followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms between late morning and late afternoon.

The more widespread activity is expected later, with showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4 PM.

The high will be near 77 degrees with a 60% rain chance.

For outdoor plans, earlier is better. Conditions become increasingly questionable toward late afternoon and evening.

Davidson County

Davidson County may have some of the better opportunities for dry periods today.

A few showers are possible from this morning into early afternoon, followed by a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 PM.

The overall rain chance is 40%, with a high near 77 degrees.

Saturday does not currently look like an all-day washout for Davidson County. There should be breaks, and the greatest thunderstorm and heavy-rain potential is expected farther south and east.

Rain chances increase considerably tonight.

Cabarrus County

Cabarrus County is another area where rain and thunderstorm coverage should increase significantly this afternoon.

The high will reach around 81 degrees, with a 90% chance of rain.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible initially, followed by showers and possibly a thunderstorm becoming more widespread after 1 PM.

Anyone with afternoon or evening outdoor plans should have a backup plan ready.

What About Heavy Rain?

Heavy rainfall is a bigger concern today than severe thunderstorms.

There is plenty of moisture available, and some storms may move slowly enough to produce locally heavy downpours. Locations repeatedly affected by heavier showers or thunderstorms could experience localized flooding.

However, there has been an encouraging change in the forecast this morning: overall expected rainfall amounts for the weekend have trended downward.

That does not eliminate the possibility of locally heavy rain. It simply means the broader rainfall totals currently do not look as high as they did in previous forecasts.

And Sunday?

Sunday remains the more consistently wet and considerably cooler day for much of the region.

A cold-air damming wedge will settle across the Piedmont, sending afternoon temperatures into the 60s to around 70 degrees.

Forecast highs Sunday are around:

Rowan County: 68 degrees
Davie County: 68 degrees
Davidson County: 65 degrees
Cabarrus County: 70 degrees

Periods of rain are expected across the region Sunday, although there may still be fluctuations in coverage and intensity.

So, Is Saturday a Washout?

Not necessarily.

There should be opportunities for dry weather between showers, particularly during the earlier portion of the day and in areas where rain coverage remains more scattered.

But the farther we get into Saturday afternoon and evening, the greater the likelihood becomes that rain interferes with outdoor plans.

The best approach today is to keep plans flexible and keep an eye on the radar.

If you have something outdoors this afternoon, don't automatically cancel because you see a 60%, 80% or 90% rain chance. At the same time, don't assume you'll stay dry simply because it isn't raining when your event begins.

This will be a situation where timing individual showers and thunderstorms matters considerably more than the percentage displayed on a weather app.

I'll be watching radar trends throughout the day as the front moves into the region and will provide updates as the timing and coverage become clearer.