2026 Regional Fall Foliage Forecast: September 22
Fall officially arrives today, and right on cue, the 2026 fall foliage season is beginning to make a much more noticeable move across the North Carolina mountains.
For this week's Rowan County Weather Regional Fall Foliage Forecast, I'm advancing the highest elevations into NEAR PEAK, while MODERATE COLOR begins developing across more of the higher mountain elevations.
Even the lower mountains and valleys are beginning to get involved, moving into EARLY CHANGE this week.
But once we leave the mountains, the story changes quickly.
The foothills and Piedmont remain overwhelmingly green.
September 22 Regional Outlook
Highest Elevations of the NC Mountains: NEAR PEAK — Vibrant Color Widespread
Higher Mountain Elevations: MODERATE COLOR — Many Trees Changing
Lower Mountains and Valleys: EARLY CHANGE — Just Starting
Foothills: GREEN — No Significant Change
Triad and Northwest Piedmont: GREEN — No Significant Change
Central and Southern Piedmont: GREEN — No Significant Change
This is easily the biggest progression we've made since the forecast began on September 1.
Near Peak Arrives at the Highest Elevations
Four weeks into our forecast, the very highest elevations are becoming the stars of the show.
Current fall-color guidance has Mount Mitchell approaching its peak period, with an estimated peak window beginning around September 25. That doesn't mean every high-elevation location is progressing at exactly the same rate, but it does support moving our highest-elevation category into NEAR PEAK.
These are very elevation-dependent conditions.
Drive downhill and you can quickly leave the more advanced color behind.
That's one of the reasons North Carolina's foliage season lasts so long. The Blue Ridge Parkway spans more than 5,000 feet of elevation difference, allowing the autumn transition to gradually work its way down the mountainsides.
Moderate Color Expands Across the Higher Mountains
Below the highest peaks, the transition is becoming increasingly noticeable.
Areas that were showing isolated or patchy color last week should increasingly feature hillsides where multiple trees are changing.
That moves these areas into:
MODERATE COLOR — Many Trees Changing
Green will still be part of the landscape. Moderate Color doesn't mean peak foliage.
Instead, it means autumn is becoming an obvious part of the view rather than something you have to search for.
Early Change Reaches the Lower Mountains
Another important change this week happens farther downhill.
I'm introducing EARLY CHANGE into the lower mountain elevations and valleys.
This remains the beginning of the transition. Green should continue to dominate, but scattered changing trees should become increasingly noticeable as September comes to an end.
This progression from the highest elevations downward is exactly what we'd expect. The National Park Service notes that most Blue Ridge Parkway trees typically change during October, beginning at the highest peaks and progressing down the mountainsides as the month continues.
Foothills Remain Green
I'm holding the foothills in GREEN — No Significant Change for another week.
We may see isolated trees beginning to change, but I don't think there's enough widespread seasonal color yet to justify advancing the entire region.
That could change fairly soon as we head toward October.
Piedmont Remains Green
For Rowan, Davie, Davidson, Cabarrus, Charlotte, the Triad and most of the Piedmont, we're still waiting.
GREEN — No Significant Change remains the appropriate category.
That doesn't mean every tree is perfectly green. Drought stress has already caused browning, yellowing and premature leaf drop in some locations.
Those changes shouldn't automatically be confused with true fall color.
Recent state drought information shows that more than two-thirds of North Carolina counties remain in some stage of drought, with conditions worsening in portions of the state during September.
Drought Remains a Major Part of the 2026 Story
This continues to be one of the biggest variables in the forecast.
NC State expects a potentially patchy foliage season because drought, heat and uneven rainfall have affected different parts of North Carolina differently. Some locations could produce good color while others experience duller foliage or earlier leaf drop.
Recent state reports also indicate that drought worsened in portions of western North Carolina, including parts of Cherokee, Haywood and Swain counties.
That means this year's progression may not look perfectly uniform from one mountain or valley to the next.
What's Changed Since Last Week?
Last week's forecast had:
Highest elevations: PATCHY COLOR
Higher mountain elevations: EARLY CHANGE
Lower mountains through the Piedmont: GREEN
This week I'm advancing three areas:
Highest elevations: NEAR PEAK
Higher mountain elevations: MODERATE COLOR
Lower mountains and valleys: EARLY CHANGE
The foothills and Piedmont remain GREEN.
For the first time this season, we now have three different stages of fall color occurring across the mountains at the same time.
September 22 Fall Foliage Forecast
Highest Elevations of the NC Mountains: NEAR PEAK — Vibrant Color Widespread
Higher Mountain Elevations: MODERATE COLOR — Many Trees Changing
Lower Mountains and Valleys: EARLY CHANGE — Just Starting
Foothills: GREEN — No Significant Change
Triad and Northwest Piedmont: GREEN — No Significant Change
Central and Southern Piedmont: GREEN — No Significant Change
The mountains are beginning to look increasingly like fall, but we're still in the early chapters of the 2026 foliage season.
The next couple of weeks should bring some of our most dramatic changes yet as peak color begins expanding through the mountains and the transition gradually works toward the foothills.
Next Update: Tuesday, September 29, 2026.