From Near 90° to the 60s: A Taste of Fall Is Coming to the Region
Summer isn't finished just yet, but a significant change in the weather pattern is taking shape for Rowan, Davie, Davidson and Cabarrus counties next week.
Temperatures will remain firmly in late-summer territory through Monday, with highs reaching the upper 80s across the region. By Wednesday, some locations may struggle to get out of the 60s.
Before the cooler air arrives, however, we'll have to get through a period of showers and thunderstorms that could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the region.
A Mostly Quiet Weekend
Saturday and Sunday aren't looking bad overall.
Highs today will range from around 84° in Davie and Davidson counties to 86° in Cabarrus County. Rowan County should reach around 85°.
There is a small chance of a passing shower today, but most locations should spend much of the day without rain.
Sunday looks even better.
Mostly sunny to sunny skies are expected across the region, with afternoon temperatures climbing into the upper 80s. A few showers or thunderstorms could develop Sunday evening, particularly across the northern part of the region, but widespread rain isn't expected.
One More Warm Day Monday
Monday will still feel very much like summer.
Forecast highs currently reach around 88° in Rowan, Davie and Davidson counties and 89° in Cabarrus County.
The difference will be what starts developing during the afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely, especially during the latter part of the day. Davidson County currently has a 70% chance of rain Monday, while Rowan and Davie counties are at 60%. Cabarrus County currently has a 40% chance.
Rain and thunderstorms then become much more widespread Monday night, with rain chances around 80% across the region.
A few storms could become strong. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary concern with any stronger thunderstorms.
Monday Night Into Tuesday Looks Wet
This is currently the period I'm watching most closely.
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms could move across the region from Monday night through Tuesday as a stronger cold front approaches and eventually moves through.
Davidson County has an additional concern for locally heavy rainfall. Current guidance indicates around one-half to three-quarters of an inch of rain could fall Monday night alone, with locally higher totals possible in thunderstorms.
Central North Carolina is also currently included in a Level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall Monday and Tuesday.
Exactly where the heaviest rain develops will become clearer as we get closer, but localized flooding could become a concern if thunderstorms repeatedly move across the same locations.
Then Temperatures Tumble
Once the front moves through, you're going to notice the difference.
Here are the current forecast highs:
Rowan County
Monday: 88°
Tuesday: 77°
Wednesday: 67°
Davie County
Monday: 88°
Tuesday: 75°
Wednesday: 65°
Davidson County
Monday: 88°
Tuesday: 76°
Wednesday: 66°
Cabarrus County
Monday: 89°
Tuesday: 78°
Wednesday: 68°
We're talking about a temperature drop of roughly 20 degrees — or more — between Monday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon.
Instead of temperatures approaching 90°, much of the region could spend Wednesday afternoon in the 60s.
That's going to feel dramatically different.
Wednesday May Not Be Sunny and Crisp
There's an important distinction to make when talking about this cooldown.
Wednesday isn't necessarily shaping up as one of those crystal-clear, sunny fall days.
Clouds could remain stubborn across the region, with occasional showers, light rain or drizzle possible in some areas.
A cooler northeast flow could become established behind the front, keeping temperatures suppressed beneath the cloud cover.
So while the thermometer may say "fall," Wednesday could have more of a cool, cloudy and damp feel.
Could the Cooler Weather Stick Around?
That's what makes this pattern particularly interesting.
Right now, this doesn't necessarily look like a one-day cooldown followed immediately by another surge of summer heat.
The developing weather pattern could allow cooler air to remain across the region through the latter part of next week.
Wednesday night lows currently range from around 58° in Davie and Davidson counties to 60° in Cabarrus County, with Rowan County around 58°.
There are also indications that nighttime temperatures could reach the 50s again later next week as drier air becomes established.
There's still uncertainty regarding exactly how the pattern evolves, so I'll be watching the trends closely over the next several days.
The Bottom Line
Enjoy the relatively quiet weekend.
Monday brings one more afternoon of temperatures approaching 90°, but it also marks the beginning of our transition.
Monday night through Tuesday currently looks like the most active period, with widespread showers and thunderstorms and the potential for locally heavy rainfall.
Then comes the temperature drop.
By Wednesday, highs could be stuck in the mid to upper 60s across much of the region.
Summer isn't necessarily finished for the year — September can still produce plenty of heat in the Carolinas — but after the persistent late-summer warmth we've experienced recently, this looks like our first legitimate taste of fall.
And I think quite a few people are going to notice the difference when they step outside Wednesday.