Could Next Week Finally Feel More Like Fall? Cooler Air May Be on the Way

It may be the middle of September, but summer certainly isn't ready to give up across the region just yet.

High temperatures will climb into the lower 90s across Rowan, Davie, Davidson and Cabarrus counties today, with another very warm day expected Friday. Some locations could reach the middle 90s, and heat index values around the Charlotte metro could climb above 100 degrees Friday afternoon.

But if you're ready for something that feels a little more like fall, there are some interesting signs showing up for next week.

First, We Have to Get Through the Weekend

Before the cooler air arrives, the weather pattern is going to become more unsettled.

A frontal boundary will begin moving south toward North Carolina Friday. That will bring increasing moisture and scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly Friday afternoon and evening.

Friday will still be hot. Forecast highs across the Rowan County Weather coverage area range from around 91 to 93 degrees, with the hottest conditions generally farther south.

The front then settles into the Carolinas Friday night into Saturday.

That should make Saturday noticeably cooler. Forecast highs are currently around 83 degrees in Rowan, Davie and Davidson counties and around 85 degrees in Cabarrus County.

That's roughly an 8- to 10-degree drop from Friday in some locations.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Saturday, so this won't necessarily be a picture-perfect fall preview.

Sunday Looks Like the Better Weekend Day

The forecast currently trends somewhat quieter Sunday.

Highs rebound into the upper 80s with mostly to partly sunny skies across the region. There could still be an isolated shower somewhere, but Sunday currently looks like the better opportunity for outdoor plans.

Don't get too comfortable, though.

Another front is expected to approach the Carolinas Monday, bringing another increase in shower and thunderstorm chances.

And that front could open the door to the more interesting change.

Cooler Air Could Push South Next Week

Forecast guidance continues to show a stronger area of high pressure building across eastern Canada and the northeastern United States next week.

That could send a cooler northeast flow southward into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Tuesday and Wednesday.

If that setup develops as currently indicated, temperatures could fall considerably from the lower 90s we're experiencing this week.

There are signals that afternoon temperatures could return to near normal or even below normal by the middle of next week.

Some guidance for portions of central North Carolina even supports highs falling into the 70s to lower 80s if the cooler air becomes firmly established.

That would certainly feel different after another stretch of 90-degree September afternoons.

But This May Not Be the Crisp Fall Weather You're Imagining

There is an important catch.

Cooler doesn't necessarily mean sunny, dry and crisp.

The same pattern that could bring cooler northeast winds into North Carolina may also leave a frontal boundary stalled nearby. There are also indications that low pressure could become involved in the pattern across the Southeast.

If those pieces come together, the result could be clouds, periods of rain and temperatures held down by both the cooler air and cloud cover.

In other words, our first significant taste of more seasonable September weather could potentially be a damp one.

There is still considerable disagreement among the forecast models regarding exactly how this evolves.

Some solutions are warmer and wetter during the middle of next week, while others allow cooler air to become more firmly established with somewhat less precipitation.

That's why I'm not ready to put specific temperatures or rainfall amounts on the middle of next week just yet.

Is This Finally Fall?

Not necessarily.

Even if temperatures drop significantly Tuesday and Wednesday, one cool stretch doesn't mean summer temperatures are finished for the year.

September can still produce plenty of warm days across the Piedmont, and there is nothing unusual about temperatures bouncing between summer-like warmth and brief shots of cooler air during this time of year.

But this potential change is worth watching.

After highs in the lower 90s today and Friday, temperatures in the 70s or lower 80s would certainly provide a much different feel by the middle of next week.

For those waiting for that first morning when you step outside and think, "Okay, now it feels like fall," we may finally be getting closer.

What I'm Watching

Over the next several forecast updates, I'll be watching how far south the front gets, how strong the high pressure to our north becomes, and whether low pressure develops or tracks close enough to keep the Carolinas wetter.

Those details will determine whether next week's change becomes a brief cooldown, a cloudy and rainy stretch, or our first more substantial taste of fall weather.

For now, enjoy the sunshine today, prepare for another hot Friday, and keep an eye on next week.

The seasons may finally be getting ready to battle it out over North Carolina.