Weekend Rain Chances Increasing Across the Region — Here’s What We Know

After several days of sunshine and increasingly warm temperatures, a change in the weather pattern is taking shape for the end of the week and the upcoming weekend.

Rain and thunderstorm chances are expected to return across the Rowan County Weather coverage area beginning Friday, with the better opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms currently expected Friday night into Saturday.

For an area that could use some rain, this may finally provide a better opportunity for meaningful rainfall. However, there are still questions about exactly how the weekend will unfold.

Dry and Hot Through Thursday

Before the rain arrives, summer is going to remind us that it isn't finished yet.

Tuesday through Thursday will feature plenty of sunshine across Rowan, Davie, Davidson and Cabarrus counties. Temperatures will steadily climb through the period.

Highs Tuesday are expected to reach the mid-80s, followed by the upper 80s Wednesday. By Thursday, much of the region should reach the lower 90s.

Current forecast highs for Thursday include:

• Rowan County: 92°
• Davie County: 92°
• Davidson County: 93°
• Cabarrus County: 92°

Humidity will also begin increasing later in the week, making conditions feel more like summer again.

Changes Begin Friday

The first signs of a changing pattern should arrive Friday as a cold front approaches the Carolinas.

Friday does not currently look like a washout. In fact, much of the day could remain rain-free.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may begin developing during the afternoon, particularly after 2 or 3 PM. Current rain chances range from around 30% in Rowan, Davie and Cabarrus counties to 40% in Davidson County.

Temperatures will remain warm despite the approaching front, with highs around 89° to 92° across the region.

Rain chances increase Friday night as the front moves closer.

Saturday Currently Has the Best Rain Chances

Saturday is becoming the day to watch.

Rain chances have increased to around 70% across Rowan, Davie, Davidson and Cabarrus counties.

Some showers could be around during the morning, but the better opportunity for showers and thunderstorms currently appears to develop during the afternoon.

This could bring some much-needed rainfall to portions of the region.

The front is expected to slow as it reaches the Carolinas rather than quickly sweeping through. That means moisture, clouds and opportunities for showers and thunderstorms could remain around longer than they would with a faster-moving front.

Showers and thunderstorms could continue Saturday evening before gradually becoming more scattered overnight.

What About Sunday?

The weekend pattern may not be finished Saturday night.

Forecast guidance suggests the front could become nearly stationary around the Carolinas. If that happens, additional showers and thunderstorms would remain possible Sunday.

Exactly where the front stalls will be important.

A relatively small shift north or south could ultimately determine which areas receive the most rainfall and where thunderstorms are most numerous.

That part of the forecast should become clearer over the next few days.

How Much Rain Could We Get?

It is still too early to confidently provide specific rainfall totals.

Thunderstorms can produce significant differences in rainfall over relatively short distances. One community could receive a good soaking while another several miles away receives considerably less.

The slow-moving nature of the upcoming pattern does increase the opportunity for beneficial rainfall, but exactly how much falls will depend on where showers and thunderstorms repeatedly develop.

Rainfall totals will become a bigger part of the forecast as we get closer to the weekend.

What About Severe Weather?

Thunderstorms will be possible, but it is too early to say whether severe weather will become a significant concern.

There should be instability available for thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon hours. At this point, however, the overall environment does not clearly point toward an organized or widespread severe-weather event.

That doesn't mean an isolated stronger storm couldn't develop.

The severe-weather potential will need to be reevaluated as we get closer and details involving instability, wind shear and the position of the front become clearer.

The Bottom Line

Enjoy the sunshine through the middle of the week because our weather pattern becomes much more unsettled beginning Friday.

Friday should be a transition day, with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms becoming possible. Rain chances increase Friday night, and Saturday currently carries the best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms across the Rowan County Weather coverage area.

Sunday could remain unsettled as the front slows or stalls near the Carolinas.

There are still important details to work out, particularly regarding rainfall amounts, thunderstorm coverage and exactly where the front stalls.

Rowan County Weather will continue tracking the latest forecast trends throughout the week as we get a clearer picture of what the weekend will bring.