Storms Return Thursday: What I’m Watching for Rowan County Late This Week

Rowan County is getting a welcome break from thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, but the quieter pattern won't last through the remainder of the week.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Thursday, beginning a transition toward a more active pattern that could continue into the weekend. While there is no reason to sound the alarm about severe weather at this point, there are a few ingredients showing up that I'll be watching closely over the next several days.

Quiet Through Wednesday

The weak cold front associated with Monday evening's storms has pushed south of the area, leaving Rowan County in a somewhat drier and more stable air mass.

That should suppress thunderstorm development Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday will be sunny with a high near 93 degrees, although the heat index could still approach 101 degrees. Wednesday will remain mostly sunny with a high near 92 and a heat index potentially approaching 100.

Despite the continued heat, the atmosphere should remain capped enough to prevent thunderstorms from developing across Rowan County.

That begins changing Thursday.

Heat and Humidity Build Again Thursday

Moisture will begin returning to the region as another weak boundary approaches the Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

Thursday could actually become the hottest day of the week in Rowan County, with the temperature climbing to around 96 degrees.

At the same time, increasing moisture and instability will make the atmosphere more favorable for thunderstorms.

The current forecast carries a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5 PM Thursday. That increases to 50% Thursday night.

These aren't especially high probabilities yet, but the environment surrounding any thunderstorms that do develop is what has my attention.

Could Some Storms Become Strong or Severe?

Yes, it's possible.

At this point, however, I would characterize it as a low-end severe weather potential rather than an indication of a widespread severe weather event.

Forecast profiles indicate the atmosphere could contain enough instability and downdraft energy to support strong wind gusts with some thunderstorms.

One potential concern will be wet downbursts.

A wet downburst occurs when rain-cooled air rapidly accelerates downward inside a thunderstorm. When that air reaches the ground, it spreads outward and can produce a sudden burst of strong straight-line winds.

In the right environment, those winds can become strong enough to bring down trees and power lines.

That doesn't mean every thunderstorm Thursday will become severe. Most probably won't. But a couple of stronger storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts can't be ruled out.

There's Also an MCS Possibility

Another feature I'll be watching is whether a thunderstorm complex develops upstream and manages to survive into our area.

This type of system is known as a Mesoscale Convective System, or MCS—essentially a large, organized complex of thunderstorms that can travel considerable distances.

The atmospheric pattern currently doesn't appear especially favorable for an MCS to reach Rowan County compared with areas farther north. However, the possibility isn't completely off the table.

This is one of those details that will become clearer as higher-resolution forecast guidance gets within range of Thursday.

Friday and Saturday May Become More Interesting

The storm environment could become somewhat more favorable for organized thunderstorms as we move into Friday and Saturday.

An approaching cold front combined with stronger winds higher in the atmosphere should increase deep-layer wind shear.

Wind shear describes changes in wind speed and/or direction with height. Increasing shear can help thunderstorms become better organized and potentially remain stronger for longer periods.

Rowan County currently has a 30% chance of afternoon thunderstorms Friday, but that increases substantially Friday night.

The current forecast calls for a 70% chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday night.

Another 40% chance of afternoon thunderstorms follows Saturday.

Exactly where the approaching front sets up, when it arrives and how much instability develops ahead of it will determine whether we simply experience scattered summertime thunderstorms or something more organized.

Cooler Weather Should Follow

The approaching front should eventually provide some relief from the late-summer heat.

After Thursday's potential high near 96 degrees, temperatures are forecast to drop to around 91 Friday and approximately 87 Saturday.

Longer-range guidance continues to suggest temperatures should move closer to seasonal levels behind the front.

So while the front may help increase our thunderstorm chances heading into the weekend, it should eventually help knock down both the heat and humidity.

What I'm Watching

There are several pieces I'll be following as we get closer to Thursday and Friday:

• How quickly moisture and instability return Thursday.
• Whether storms remain scattered or become more organized.
• The potential for strong wind gusts and wet downbursts.
• Whether an upstream MCS develops and has any opportunity to reach the Carolinas.
• How much wind shear increases Friday and Saturday.
• The timing and eventual position of the approaching cold front.

The important thing right now is not to interpret this as a forecast for widespread severe weather.

We're still several days away, and many details will change.

What the forecast does tell us is that our quiet stretch Tuesday and Wednesday probably won't continue through the end of the week. Thunderstorms return Thursday, and the environment becomes increasingly worth watching as we head toward Friday and the weekend.

I'll continue tracking the setup and provide updates as the details become clearer for Rowan County.