Saturday Could Bring Strong to Severe Storms Across Rowan County

Rowan County will have another hot weekend ahead, but the heat will not be the only weather concern. Attention is increasingly turning toward Saturday afternoon and evening, when conditions could become favorable for scattered thunderstorms, including a few capable of producing damaging winds.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed Rowan County within a Slight Risk, Level 2 of 5, for severe thunderstorms Saturday. The latest outlook also places the county within a 15% probability of damaging thunderstorm winds.

That 15% probability means there is a 15% chance of damaging winds from thunderstorms occurring within 25 miles of any given point in the highlighted area. While that may not sound particularly high, it represents an elevated severe-weather threat and is enough for the SPC to highlight the area with a Slight Risk.

Why Saturday Has My Attention

A weak frontal boundary approaching from the north could help provide additional focus for thunderstorm development Saturday. At the same time, the atmosphere across the Carolinas will remain very warm, humid and unstable.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon, with activity potentially becoming more numerous as we move into the late afternoon and evening.

For Rowan County, the current forecast calls for a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday, followed by a 40% chance Saturday night.

Saturday's high is expected to reach around 93 degrees, but the humidity could push the heat index as high as 106 degrees. That combination of heat and moisture will provide plenty of energy for thunderstorms if they are able to develop.

Damaging Winds Are the Primary Severe Threat

The main concern with Saturday's stronger thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts.

Some thunderstorms could produce strong downdrafts capable of bringing damaging winds to the surface. Wet microbursts are also possible, where a thunderstorm suddenly produces an intense burst of wind accompanied by very heavy rainfall.

These storms do not necessarily have to produce widespread severe weather. A storm can affect a relatively small area while still producing enough wind to bring down trees or large limbs and potentially cause scattered power outages.

Heavy Rain Will Be Another Concern

The atmosphere will contain plenty of moisture, meaning thunderstorms will also be capable of producing torrential rainfall.

Any slower-moving storm or location affected by multiple thunderstorms could receive significant rainfall over a short period of time. That could result in localized ponding of water and nuisance flooding, particularly in poor-drainage areas.

Rainfall will also be highly variable. Some parts of Rowan County could receive a heavy downpour while other communities see considerably less rain.

Timing Will Become Clearer

At this point, the primary window to watch appears to be Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.

The exact timing, coverage and strength of thunderstorms will depend on how the atmosphere evolves during the day. Morning cloud cover, any leftover boundaries from earlier thunderstorms and the amount of afternoon heating could all influence what ultimately develops.

This is not a situation where everyone in Rowan County is guaranteed to experience severe weather. However, with the county now included in the SPC's Slight Risk and 15% damaging-wind area, Saturday deserves closer attention than a typical summertime afternoon.

The Bottom Line

Rowan County is currently under a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday, with the Storm Prediction Center highlighting a 15% probability of damaging winds.

The primary concerns will be:

• Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts
• Wet microbursts
• Very heavy rainfall
• Localized flooding
• Frequent lightning with stronger storms

Saturday will also remain very hot, with a forecast high near 93 degrees and heat index values potentially reaching 106 degrees before thunderstorms develop.

I'll continue watching the latest data today and Saturday morning for changes in the timing and severity of the threat. As always, make sure you have a reliable way to receive weather warnings, especially if you have outdoor plans Saturday afternoon or evening.

Rowan County Weather will continue to provide updates as the weekend storm threat becomes clearer.