Rowan County Drought Conditions Improve Significantly Following Recent Rainfall
Recent rounds of showers and thunderstorms have made a noticeable difference in Rowan County's drought conditions.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, based on conditions through Tuesday, August 11, shows a major reduction in drought coverage across the county.
Moderate Drought Drops Sharply
Because the Drought Monitor percentages are cumulative, the 8.95% listed under D1-D4 is included within the 100% listed under D0-D4. Breaking the county into its actual categories gives us:
- 91.05% of Rowan County is Abnormally Dry (D0)
- 8.95% of Rowan County is in Moderate Drought (D1)
- 0% is in Severe Drought (D2)
- 0% is in Extreme Drought (D3)
- 0% is in Exceptional Drought (D4)
That accounts for 100% of Rowan County.
Last week, 75.63% of Rowan County was in Moderate Drought, meaning only 24.37% was classified as Abnormally Dry.
So in just one week, Moderate Drought coverage has fallen from 75.63% to 8.95%.
The Drought Severity and Coverage Index, or DSCI, also dropped from 176 last week to 109 this week, another indication of significant improvement.
Where Does Moderate Drought Remain?
Looking at this week's map, the remaining D1 Moderate Drought area clips the far southeastern portion of Rowan County, generally around the southeastern county line.
The remaining 91.05% of the county is now classified as D0 Abnormally Dry.
It's important to remember that D0 does not technically represent drought. Instead, it indicates an area that is abnormally dry and could either be heading toward drought or recovering from drought conditions.
So while this week's update represents significant progress, Rowan County has not completely returned to normal moisture conditions.
Quite a Change From Earlier This Summer
The longer-term numbers put the improvement into perspective.
Three months ago, 100% of Rowan County was classified in Extreme Drought (D3). Because the Drought Monitor categories are cumulative, that also means 100% was included within D0, D1 and D2 or worse.
There was no Exceptional Drought (D4).
The county's DSCI stood at 400 at that time.
Compare that with this week:
91.05% — Abnormally Dry (D0)
8.95% — Moderate Drought (D1)
0% — Severe Drought or worse
The DSCI has fallen from 400 three months ago to 109 this week.
At the beginning of the calendar year, the entire county was experiencing Moderate Drought, with a DSCI of 200.
The latest numbers show how dramatically conditions have improved since then.
Recent Rainfall Has Helped
Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms across Rowan County and the surrounding region have helped reduce short-term moisture deficits.
Individual rainfall totals have varied considerably depending on exactly where thunderstorms tracked, but the overall wetter pattern has clearly made a difference.
This week's dramatic reduction in Moderate Drought coverage is evidence of just how beneficial the recent rainfall has been.
Why Are We Still Abnormally Dry?
Drought conditions aren't determined by rainfall from just one storm—or even one wet week.
The U.S. Drought Monitor considers a variety of factors, including precipitation over different time periods, soil moisture, streamflow, groundwater, vegetation and agricultural impacts.
Longer-term moisture deficits can take considerably more time to erase.
That's why Rowan County can receive substantial rainfall over a relatively short period and still have 91.05% of the county classified as Abnormally Dry.
Heat Could Begin Working Against the Improvement
There is another factor I'll be watching closely: the heat.
Rowan County is heading into another prolonged stretch of temperatures in the 90s, with temperatures potentially reaching the upper 90s early next week.
Hot weather increases evaporation from the soil and water loss from vegetation. If the upcoming heat is accompanied by limited rainfall, the drying process could begin accelerating again.
There will continue to be opportunities for isolated to scattered summertime thunderstorms, but those storms can produce extremely uneven rainfall. One community may receive a soaking downpour while another only a few miles away gets very little.
That's why the next couple of weekly Drought Monitor updates will be worth watching.
The Bottom Line
This week's Drought Monitor brings encouraging news for Rowan County.
Just one week ago:
24.37% — Abnormally Dry
75.63% — Moderate Drought
This week:
91.05% — Abnormally Dry
8.95% — Moderate Drought
That means 66.68% of Rowan County improved out of Moderate Drought in just one week.
Even more impressive, the entire county was experiencing Extreme Drought only three months ago.
The drought isn't completely gone, but Rowan County has made substantial progress.
Now the question becomes whether we can hold onto those gains as another stretch of hot August weather settles across the county.