Two Atlantic Tropical Waves Being Monitored as AL92 Development Chance Climbs to 80%

The Atlantic basin remains active Thursday morning with Tropical Depression Cristobal and two additional tropical waves being monitored for possible development.

The system drawing the most immediate attention is Invest AL92 in the central tropical Atlantic, where the chance of tropical development has increased to 80 percent.

AL92 Could Become a Tropical Depression Soon

As of 8:00 AM Thursday, showers and thunderstorms associated with AL92 were showing increasing signs of organization. The tropical wave was located about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and moving westward across the tropical Atlantic.

Conditions could support additional organization during the next day or two, and a short-lived tropical depression is likely to form.

The current development probabilities are:

• Formation chance through 48 hours: 80 percent
• Formation chance through 7 days: 80 percent

The window for development may not remain open for very long.

By late Friday, AL92 is expected to encounter stronger upper-level winds and dry air. Those increasingly hostile conditions should bring an end to the system's opportunity for further tropical development.

Development or not, the system could still bring impacts to portions of the Lesser Antilles. Gusty winds and areas of heavy rainfall will be possible Friday night into Saturday as the tropical wave moves through the region.

Interests across the Lesser Antilles should continue monitoring the system's progress.

AL94 Being Monitored in Eastern Atlantic

Farther east, another tropical wave designated Invest AL94 is located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with AL94 remain disorganized Thursday morning, but environmental conditions are expected to be generally favorable for gradual development.

A tropical depression could form late this week or during the weekend as the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

The current development probabilities for AL94 are:

• Formation chance through 48 hours: 30 percent
• Formation chance through 7 days: 50 percent

Unlike AL92, which has a relatively short window for development, AL94 could have more time to gradually organize as it travels across the open Atlantic.

It remains far too early to determine what, if any, longer-range impacts AL94 could eventually produce. Its development and track will need to be monitored over the coming days.

Cristobal Weakens to a Tropical Depression

Cristobal has recently been downgraded to a tropical depression and was located approximately 600 miles west of the Azores Thursday morning.

Cristobal remains an active tropical cyclone, but it is well out over the Atlantic and is separate from the two tropical waves currently being monitored for potential development.

What I'm Watching

The immediate focus will be on whether AL92 can organize enough to become a tropical depression before conditions become unfavorable late Friday.

Attention will also increasingly turn toward AL94. While its development probabilities are currently lower, environmental conditions could allow the system to gradually organize during the next several days.

Neither AL92 nor AL94 currently represents an immediate threat to North Carolina. Both systems remain far out in the Atlantic, and there is plenty of time to monitor how they develop and where they eventually track.

I'll continue monitoring the tropical Atlantic and provide updates as conditions change.

Information current as of 8:00 AM Thursday, August 13, 2026.