Monday Storm Threat Increasing Across Rowan County: What I'm Watching

As we enjoy a beautiful weekend across Rowan County, I'm already keeping a close eye on Monday's weather.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) introduced a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather in its latest Day 3 outlook issued Saturday morning. Rowan County is included in that risk area as a cold front approaches the Carolinas Monday afternoon and evening.

While severe weather is far from a certainty, forecast confidence is increasing that showers and thunderstorms will develop Monday, and a few could become strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts.

Why Monday Has My Attention

For several days, forecast guidance has indicated a cold front would arrive early next week. What has changed is that forecast models are becoming more consistent in showing thunderstorm development Monday afternoon and evening ahead of that front.

The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center places Rowan County within both a 5% severe weather probability area and a Marginal Risk area for Monday.

That doesn't mean everyone will see severe weather. It does mean conditions may support a few storms becoming severe, especially during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Timing I'm Watching

While exact timing will likely change somewhat over the next 48 hours, here's the current window I'm watching:

Monday Afternoon (2 PM - 5 PM)

• Isolated storms begin developing across western North Carolina.
• Temperatures climb into the lower 90s.
• Southwest winds become increasingly gusty.

Monday Evening (5 PM - 10 PM)

• Highest chance for showers and thunderstorms across Rowan County.
• Best opportunity for any strong or severe storms.
• Heavy rainfall, lightning, and damaging wind gusts become possible.

Late Monday Night

• Storms gradually weaken and move east.
• Rain chances decrease overnight as the cold front moves through.

Primary Threat: Damaging Wind Gusts

At this time, damaging straight-line winds appear to be the main concern.

Southwest winds will already be increasing ahead of the front, with gusts approaching 20 to 25 mph during the day Monday. Stronger thunderstorms could bring even stronger wind gusts to the surface.

Potential impacts include:

• Downed tree limbs
• Isolated power outages
• Blowing around unsecured outdoor objects
• Difficult travel for high-profile vehicles

The threats for hail and tornadoes currently appear much lower than the wind threat, though I'll continue monitoring trends through the weekend.

What I'll Be Watching This Weekend

Several factors will determine how active Monday becomes:

• How much heat and humidity build into the area Monday afternoon.
• The exact timing of the approaching cold front.
• Whether storms develop as a broken line or more scattered clusters.
• Any changes to the Storm Prediction Center outlooks Sunday and Monday.

As additional forecast data becomes available, confidence in timing and impacts should continue to improve.

What You Should Do Now

There's no reason to change any weekend plans.

Instead, use the next couple of days to stay informed and check back for forecast updates. If you have outdoor plans Monday afternoon or evening, especially youth sports, outdoor work, or travel, you'll want to keep an eye on the latest forecast.

For now, enjoy the sunshine and comfortable weather this weekend. My attention is turning toward Monday, and I'll continue monitoring the potential for strong thunderstorms as new data arrives.

• Steve Monday
  Chief Forecaster
  Rowan County Weather