Tropical Weather Update: Low Development Chances Continue in the Gulf
ROWAN COUNTY, N.C. — The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a broad area of low pressure in the far southern Bay of Campeche, but forecasters continue to indicate that tropical development remains unlikely over the next several days.
As of the National Hurricane Center's 8:00 AM Tropical Weather Outlook, the system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf region near the Mexican coastline.
Current Situation
The area of low pressure has formed over the far southern Bay of Campeche and is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday.
While some gradual organization is possible, environmental conditions are only expected to be marginally favorable for development before the system moves onshore.
Could It Return to the Gulf?
Forecasters note that the system could eventually re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America during the middle of next week.
However, even if that occurs, the disturbance is expected to interact with a frontal boundary, and atmospheric conditions are still forecast to remain only marginally supportive of development.
Because of these limiting factors, the National Hurricane Center continues to assign only a low probability of tropical cyclone formation.
Development Chances
According to the National Hurricane Center:
- 48-hour development chance: 10%
- 7-day development chance: 10%
These percentages indicate that tropical development is not expected at this time.
No Threat to the Carolinas
There are currently no indications that this system will impact North Carolina.
The disturbance is expected to remain focused near eastern Mexico and portions of the western Gulf region through the next several days.
As always during hurricane season, Rowan County Weather will continue monitoring the tropics and provide updates should any future systems pose a concern for the Carolinas.
Rowan County Weather Bottom Line
A broad area of low pressure has formed in the southern Bay of Campeche.
Development chances remain low at just 10%.
The system is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico this weekend.
It may re-emerge into the Gulf next week, but conditions remain unfavorable for significant development.
No impacts to North Carolina are expected.
The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season remains quiet for now, but Rowan County Weather will continue tracking any tropical developments throughout the season.
