Graduation Forecast Update: Rain Chances Increasing for Saturday Ceremonies

Graduation weekend is approaching across Rowan County and surrounding areas, and the latest forecast trends continue showing increasing rain and thunderstorm chances by Saturday afternoon and evening.

While the day will not be a complete washout, families, graduates, and schools should be prepared for periods of rain and thunderstorms — especially later in the day.

Latest Forecast for Saturday

Saturday

A chance of showers during the morning will gradually increase through the afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms becoming more likely after 2 PM. Mostly cloudy skies are expected with highs near 80 degrees.

• Rain Chance: 70%

Saturday Night

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain possible into the evening and overnight hours with mostly cloudy skies and lows around 63 degrees.

• Rain Chance: 60%

Timing Still Important

At this point, forecast guidance continues suggesting the highest coverage of rain and storms may develop during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday.

Some morning graduation ceremonies could potentially avoid the heaviest rainfall, while later afternoon and evening events may face a greater risk for interruptions due to showers and thunderstorms.

The latest GFS guidance continues showing scattered showers developing during the late morning before coverage increases through the afternoon hours.

Not Expected To Rain All Day

One important thing to remember is that this does not currently look like an all-day steady rain event.

Instead, the forecast favors scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, meaning there will likely be dry periods mixed in between rounds of rain.

However, any thunderstorms that develop could produce brief heavy downpours and lightning, which would likely impact outdoor ceremonies.

Temperatures Turning Cooler

The increased cloud cover and rain chances will help keep temperatures noticeably cooler compared to the lower 90s expected earlier this week.

Saturday’s high temperatures are currently forecast to stay near 80 degrees, which is much closer to average for late May.

Forecast Confidence

Confidence is increasing that Saturday will feature at least scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region, but the exact timing and placement of the heaviest rainfall remains uncertain.

As we move closer to graduation day, forecast timing will become clearer.

Rowan County Weather will continue monitoring the latest model trends and provide updates throughout the week as graduation ceremonies approach.