Wintry precipiation still not likely this weekend.

As we continue to move closer to the weekend. The rumor of snow by other weather outlets continues to be just that. A rumor! As I continue to look at the models for the upcoming weekend there is still not enough to suggest wintry precipitation be something that is likely to occur. A cold rain event is more likely than anything else. Let's take a look at the current GFS and ECMWF models out there and what they are both showing.

The GFS Model

The above model is through 7pm Saturday evening. There are four panels to the model that show the possible precipitation you could see during the event. The windows break down like this.

• Top Left : Indicates icy precipitation: As you can see from that pane there is a chance for some icy precipitation in Virginia.
• Top Right: Indicates Freezing Rain: The model does show a possibility of freezing rain being likely. However, there are other factors you have to examine. The timing of the moisture. The ground temperature as well as the the temperature a loft. The air has continued to look to be too warm a loft throughout the day on Saturday for anything favoring wintry precipitation. At ground level it is possible for Freezing rain if the moisture came through early or late enough. That window just does not look to be likely.
• Bottom Left: Indicates rain only. This is the most likely possibility for any sort of precipitation for the upcoming weekend.
• Bottom Right: Indicates Snow. This window has continued to trend away from snow over all of the model runs.

The only window that has been consistent with every model run is the window that indicates rain. Based on all of the other factors this continues to be the likely scenario.

The ECMWF Model

The European Model picture above through 7pm Saturday shows a very slight chance of snowfall in the western NC areas but this is even a long shot and not likely for the upcoming weekend. Except for the higher elevations in the mountains.

I will continue to post updates on this daily as we move toward the weekend. As I have stated form the start of all of this talk with the snow rumors circulating around social media for the upcoming weekend. I have not saw anything that would lead me to believe that I should forecast anything other than rain for this weekend. As always thank you for following Rowan County Weather!