Snow Rumor Update

As I reported yesterday there was a lot of concern going around form the rumor of a social media weather outlet stating we could see some winter weather this weekend in the area. I reported that I was seeing nothing that would indicate to me that we would see any form of wintry precipitation this weekend. My stance on that today is even stronger than it was 24 hours ago. Lets take a look at the two main weather models used during winter forecast periods.

The GFS Model

As you can see from the picture above this is a run for Saturday evening at around 7pm. The model breaks down into four boxes. Color and Shaded areas in the boxes indicate precipitation and where it may fall.

• Top Left indicates Icy Precipitation. That box has been and continues to be blank with no data to indicate any icy precipitation for this weekend.
• Top Right indicates Freezing Rain. That box also continues to be blank indication no chance of Freezing Rain this weekend.
• Bottom Left indicates rain. As you can see that entire box is in green. We are very likely to see rain this weekend. The air a loft will be to warm to yield frozen precipitation or snow.
• Bottom Right indicates snow. There are just a few areas shaded in blue in this box. These are mainly western facing slopes along the NC/TN border that could see snow mixing with rain except at the highest elevations where you could see all snow.

The ECMWF Model

The model pictured above indicates the likely hood of snow. This is also through Saturday evening and as you can tell the model is indicating nothing in the way of wintry precipitation.

One could take the one image form the GFS model above and make a claim that it will snow. Some are indeed doing that. As I stated yesterday. With my forecast for the residents of Rowan County. I want credibility. I will continue to provide updates as we head into the weekend about the potential and how it will likely continue to remain as I have forecasted. A cold rain event for the county. Thank you as always for following Rowan County Weather!