Latest from the National Hurricane Center – Hurricane Melissa

Melissa is in the midst of a period of extreme rapid intensification. Its intensity has increased by 50 kt over the past 24 hours and 35 kt over the past 12 hours. Data from the last Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft pass indicated maximum winds of 105 kt and a minimum pressure of 958 mb. Since that time, satellite data shows the eye has cleared and warmed, with intensity now estimated at 120 kt (Category 4).

The hurricane has shifted slightly west-southwest but is now moving west at 4 kt. Over the next 48 hours, Melissa is expected to turn slowly north-northeast, passing just south of Jamaica and likely reaching the southern coast of the island by Tuesday morning. Afterward, it is expected to accelerate northeastward toward southeastern Cuba late Tuesday or early Wednesday, then the southeastern Bahamas later Wednesday, and near Bermuda by Friday.

Melissa could reach Category 5 strength by tonight. Eyewall replacement cycles may lead to fluctuations in intensity after that, but the storm is expected to reach Jamaica as a Category 4 hurricane, maintaining major hurricane status through its approach to Cuba and the Bahamas before weakening later in the week.

Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall through Monday will cause catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Power and communication outages are expected, along with life-threatening storm surge Monday night into Tuesday.

2. Haiti: Catastrophic flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti through midweek. Infrastructure damage and isolation of communities are likely. Winds could strengthen again on Tuesday.

3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through midweek could lead to catastrophic flash flooding and landslides across southern portions of the country.

4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa closely. Significant storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding are possible by midweek. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for portions of eastern Cuba.