Tropical Weather Outlook – National Hurricane Center

2:00 AM EDT – Wednesday, September 24, 2025

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
A tropical wave about 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to show signs of organization. Conditions are favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days as it moves west-northwest to northwest into the western Atlantic, staying well north of the Leeward Islands.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: 80% (high)

• Formation chance through 7 days: 90% (high)

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
A tropical wave over the northeastern Caribbean Sea is producing widespread showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds across the Windward and Leeward Islands. The system is expected to move west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph, bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, then across the Dominican Republic tonight. Development chances increase later this week as it slows and turns northwest toward the Bahamas.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: 30% (low)

• Formation chance through 7 days: 80% (high)

Hurricane Gabrielle – 5:00 AM AST Discussion:
Gabrielle is slowly weakening, with maximum sustained winds near 100 mph. The storm is moving east-northeast at 22 mph and is expected to pass through or near the Azores in about 48 hours. Gabrielle will continue to weaken as it encounters cooler waters and wind shear but is forecast to bring hurricane conditions to the Azores Thursday night into Friday, where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect.

Even as Gabrielle transitions to an extratropical system late this week, it will produce dangerous winds, heavy rainfall, and hazardous seas across parts of the North Atlantic.

Key Messages:

1. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late Thursday as a hurricane. Hurricane conditions are likely Thursday night and Friday.

2. Swells from Gabrielle will continue to impact Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward, and Atlantic Canada through the next couple of days, creating life-threatening surf and rip current risks.