NHC Update: Tropical Storm Gabrielle Strengthening in the Atlantic

September 21, 2025 – 8:00 AM EDT
National Hurricane Center (NHC), Miami, FL

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Tropical Storm Gabrielle in the central subtropical Atlantic along with a developing tropical wave further east.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle

Gabrielle has shown signs of strengthening overnight, with new bursts of deep convection near the storm’s center. Current estimates place maximum sustained winds at 55 knots (about 65 mph). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system today, which will provide more details on its structure and intensity.

Track and Forecast

Gabrielle is moving north-northwest at about 8 knots. The system is expected to gradually curve north and then northeast over the next several days, remaining well east of Bermuda on Monday before accelerating across the Atlantic.

Environmental conditions are favorable for Gabrielle to strengthen further, and it is expected to become a hurricane later today. The peak forecast intensity has been adjusted to around 85 knots (near 100 mph) before weakening begins mid-week as wind shear increases and sea surface temperatures cool.

Impacts

• Bermuda: Chances of direct impacts are decreasing, but some wind and rain effects remain possible.

• Swells: Large swells generated by Gabrielle are affecting Bermuda now and will spread to the U.S. East Coast (from North Carolina northward) and Atlantic Canada later today. These swells will create dangerous surf and rip current conditions through early this week.

Central Tropical Atlantic Disturbance

The NHC is also monitoring a broad tropical wave moving west-northwest across the central Atlantic, located well to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

• Short-term outlook (48 hours): Low chance of development, near 0 percent.

• Longer-term outlook (7 days): Medium chance of development, around 40 percent, as conditions gradually improve for possible tropical depression formation later this week.

Key Takeaways

1. Gabrielle is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane today, staying east of Bermuda but still producing hazardous seas.

2. Life-threatening rip currents and rough surf will reach the U.S. East Coast and Atlantic Canada in the coming days.

3. A new tropical disturbance in the central Atlantic bears watching for potential development this week.