Watching the Gulf: Could AL93 Bring Us Rain Later This Week?

As of early Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor an area of low pressure—designated as AL93—just off the east coast of Florida. While this system remains disorganized, recent satellite-derived wind data shows it is slowly becoming better defined.

What We Know So Far

AL93 is expected to move westward across the Florida Peninsula today and tonight before emerging into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by midweek. Once in the Gulf, environmental conditions become more favorable for tropical development. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 40 percent chance of formation both within the next 48 hours and 7 days.

Even if AL93 does not reach tropical depression or tropical storm strength, it is expected to bring heavy rainfall to parts of Florida and potentially the north-central Gulf Coast later this week. That includes areas from the Florida Panhandle to coastal Mississippi and Alabama.

Could It Affect Us in Rowan County?

While the system poses no immediate threat to North Carolina, it could influence our weather by the weekend. The same tropical moisture that may help AL93 form could also be drawn northward into the Carolinas. This would increase our humidity and potentially boost daily rainfall totals starting as early as Friday.

Forecast models currently show no clear sign of a direct impact from a named storm, but the overall pattern supports an uptick in moisture, especially if the system becomes more organized over the Gulf.

What We’re Watching

• Track and organization: Will AL93 consolidate once over the Gulf, and how far north will the moisture spread?

• Timing: If we are impacted, it would most likely be late Friday into the weekend.

• Rainfall potential: Increased tropical moisture could raise the risk of localized flooding from slower-moving storms.

Rowan County Weather will continue to monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center and model guidance. As always, even a non-tropical system can bring impacts depending on its path and timing.

Stay tuned for forecast updates later this week.