Sunday Rain Chances Are Climbing — Here’s What the Gulf System Means for Our Region

If you have outdoor plans this weekend, Saturday continues to look like the better of the two days.

Confidence is increasing that a much wetter weather pattern will arrive across Rowan, Davie, Davidson and Cabarrus counties Saturday night into Sunday as moisture associated with the developing tropical system in the Gulf gets pulled northward into the Southeast.

The important distinction is that our region does not need to take a direct hit from a tropical system to feel its effects.

Saturday Still Looks Mostly Usable

One of the more encouraging trends continues to be the timing of the rain.

At this point, I expect most of Saturday daytime to remain usable across the region. Clouds will increase and there could be an isolated shower, particularly later in the day, but widespread rain is not currently expected during most of the daytime hours.

For Rowan, Davie, Davidson and Cabarrus counties, I am currently carrying only a 20% chance of rain during the day Saturday.

That doesn't guarantee everyone stays rain-free, but I would not cancel Saturday daytime plans based on the forecast as it stands Wednesday morning.

The more significant changes should begin Saturday night.

Rain Chances Increase Saturday Night

Moisture will begin increasing considerably across the Carolinas Saturday night as the overall weather pattern becomes more favorable for rain.

This is when rain should become more widespread across our region, particularly later Saturday night and toward Sunday morning.

By Sunday, confidence is considerably higher that rain will be occurring across at least portions of the region.

I am currently carrying an 80% chance of rain Sunday for Rowan, Davie and Cabarrus counties and a 70% chance for Davidson County.

Those numbers could still change, but the overall trend in the guidance has been toward greater confidence in a wet Sunday.

What Does the Gulf System Have to Do With Us?

A tropical system developing over the Gulf is expected to strengthen before eventually accelerating northeastward.

Exactly where the center of that system ultimately tracks is important, but it isn't the only thing I'm watching.

A larger weather system moving across the United States will help pull a deep supply of Gulf moisture northward into the Southeast. Moisture associated with the tropical system can become incorporated into that larger system and eventually reach the Carolinas.

That's why you may hear me talking about the Gulf system even though its center could remain hundreds of miles away from Rowan County.

At this point, I am not forecasting a direct tropical-system impact for our region.

Instead, the bigger concern is the additional moisture it provides to the weather system moving through the Southeast.

How Much Rain Could We Get?

This remains one of the biggest questions.

Early projections have suggested rainfall around an inch could be possible across portions of central North Carolina, but I would not lock onto that number yet.

There are several moving pieces involved, including how quickly the Gulf system moves, its eventual track, how much tropical moisture reaches the Carolinas and how quickly the entire system moves through our area.

One potentially encouraging development is that the Gulf system may move faster than earlier forecasts indicated. A faster-moving system could reduce the amount of time that deep tropical moisture remains focused over our region.

However, tropical moisture can produce locally heavier rainfall, so I'll continue watching trends closely before becoming confident in specific rainfall totals.

What About Thunderstorms?

Thunderstorms could become part of the forecast as well, especially Sunday.

Whether we have enough instability for thunderstorms will depend heavily on the exact evolution of the system. A cool, stable air mass would favor primarily periods of rain, while greater instability reaching our region could allow thunderstorms to develop.

That is another detail that should become clearer over the next couple of days.

The Bottom Line

There is no reason to worry about the weekend yet, but there is good reason to keep checking the forecast.

Beautiful weather continues through the end of the workweek.

Saturday daytime currently looks mostly usable, with only a small chance of rain.

Rain chances increase considerably Saturday night.

Sunday is increasingly looking like the wettest day of the weekend, with widespread rain becoming more likely across the region.

And while the developing Gulf tropical system is part of the equation, I am not currently expecting a direct tropical impact across Rowan, Davie, Davidson or Cabarrus counties.

The primary concern is moisture from that system becoming incorporated into a larger weather system and enhancing our rainfall.

There is still plenty of time for the details to change.

I'll continue tracking the Gulf system, weekend timing, rainfall projections and thunderstorm potential closely as new guidance arrives.