Will Weekend Plans Be a Washout? Not So Fast.

If you’ve already looked ahead to next weekend’s forecast and noticed rain chances showing up, don’t start canceling those outdoor plans just yet.

Rain is becoming increasingly possible across Rowan, Davie, Davidson and Cabarrus counties as we head toward Friday night and the weekend. But on Monday morning, there is still considerable uncertainty about exactly when that rain will arrive — and that timing could make a big difference in how the weekend turns out.

First, We Have Several Beautiful Days Ahead

Before we get to the weekend, the region has a long stretch of sunny and increasingly warm weather ahead.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Tuesday brings lower 80s for most locations before a more noticeable warmup takes hold.

By Wednesday, highs climb into the mid-80s. Thursday and Friday could bring some of the warmest temperatures of the week, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s across the region.

Rain is not expected to be an issue through Thursday.

So When Does the Rain Arrive?

That’s the big question.

The forecast is beginning to introduce shower chances late Friday into Friday night, but the guidance has not settled on the timing of the approaching weather system.

Some guidance brings moisture and showers into the region as early as Friday evening. Other solutions are slower and favor Saturday, while some guidance affecting portions of the region is even slower with the more meaningful rain.

That is a significant timing difference when people are trying to make weekend plans.

If the faster scenario wins out, Saturday could become a wetter and cooler day. If the slower solutions are correct, we could get through a larger portion of Saturday before conditions deteriorate.

Right now, there simply isn’t enough confidence to call Saturday — or the entire weekend — a washout.

Another Wedge Could Enter the Picture

There is another piece of the forecast that I’ll be watching closely.

High pressure is expected to develop well to our north late this week and move toward the Great Lakes and New England. That could put it in a favorable position to send cooler air southward into parts of the Carolinas.

That’s the setup that can produce cold-air damming, commonly called a “wedge.”

If rain begins falling while that cooler air is moving into the region, it could reinforce the wedge and result in a much cooler, cloudier and damper period.

The exact evolution isn't clear yet, and Davidson County’s forecast guidance is currently placing more emphasis on a cold frontal passage bringing cooler temperatures into the weekend. Either way, there is a growing signal that the very warm weather late this week may not last through the weekend.

What Should You Do With Weekend Plans?

For now, keep them.

There is no reason on Monday morning to cancel an outdoor event scheduled for Saturday or Sunday based solely on the rain chances currently showing up in the forecast.

What we have right now is a signal for a changing weather pattern — not enough certainty to determine exactly which hours will be wet.

Over the next several forecast cycles, we should begin seeing better agreement on the speed of the approaching system. Once that happens, we’ll have a much clearer idea whether Saturday, Sunday or portions of both days have the greatest chance of being affected.

The Bottom Line

Enjoy the sunshine this week.

Temperatures will steadily climb, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s by Thursday and Friday. After that, the pattern begins changing.

Rain chances return late Friday and increase heading into the weekend, while cooler air may also make a comeback.

But is next weekend going to be a washout?

It’s simply too early to make that call.

I’ll continue watching the trends throughout the week and narrow down the timing as confidence increases.