Friday’s Storm Chances Are Increasing — Will Saturday Be a Washout?

After a couple of mostly sunny days across the region, our weather pattern is getting ready to change just in time for the weekend.

The good news for anyone with Saturday plans: right now, I would not call Saturday a washout.

But rain chances have increased, and there is growing confidence that a weak front will bring showers and thunderstorms back into the region beginning Friday afternoon.

Sunshine Before the Changes

Wednesday will be a nice late-summer day across Rowan, Davie, Davidson and Cabarrus counties, with mostly sunny to sunny skies and afternoon temperatures generally in the middle to upper 80s.

Thursday turns hotter.

Highs climb into the lower 90s across much of the region under mostly sunny skies, and that summer heat will carry into Friday.

In fact, Friday could be the hottest day of this stretch for some communities, with forecast highs ranging from around 91° in Rowan County to around 93° in Cabarrus County.

But Friday won't stay quiet.

Friday Afternoon Is When Things Begin to Change

A front approaching the Carolinas will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms as moisture increases across the region.

For Rowan, Davie, Davidson and Cabarrus counties, rain chances are currently around 60% Friday afternoon and Friday night.

The timing is important.

Much of Friday could remain rain-free, particularly through the morning and early afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances begin increasing after about 2 PM, with the better opportunity coming later Friday afternoon and into the evening.

That means Friday isn't necessarily an all-day rainy day either. It's the second half of the day that deserves the most attention.

At this point, the overall setup does not favor a significant severe-weather threat. Thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds, but widespread severe weather is not currently expected.

What Happens to the Front Saturday?

That's where the forecast becomes more interesting.

Instead of quickly sweeping through the Carolinas, the front may slow down or linger across the region.

That would accomplish two things.

First, temperatures will drop considerably.

After highs in the lower 90s Thursday and Friday, Saturday afternoon temperatures are currently forecast to reach only the lower to middle 80s.

Current Saturday highs are around:

Rowan County — 83°

Davie County — 83°

Davidson County — 84°

Cabarrus County — 85°

That's a drop of roughly 8 to 10 degrees in some locations compared with Friday.

Second, the lingering boundary provides another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms to develop.

So, Is Saturday Going to Be a Washout?

At this point, no.

That's an important distinction.

Current rain chances range from about 30% to 40% Saturday afternoon across the four-county forecast area. Those numbers support scattered showers and thunderstorms rather than continuous rain covering the entire region from morning through night.

For Rowan, Davie and Davidson counties, the current afternoon rain chance is around 30%. Cabarrus County is slightly higher at around 40%.

So if you have outdoor plans Saturday, I wouldn't cancel them based on today's forecast.

I would, however, continue checking the forecast.

Exactly where the front stalls will matter. A relatively small shift in its position could change where clouds are thickest and where showers and thunderstorms are most numerous.

Sunday Currently Looks Better

There are still questions about exactly how quickly the front loses its influence, but Sunday currently looks quieter across much of the region.

High temperatures should rebound into the upper 80s, with mostly sunny skies forecast for Rowan and Cabarrus counties and partly sunny conditions expected across Davie and Davidson counties.

There remains some uncertainty beyond the weekend as additional moisture and weak boundaries could keep occasional rain chances in the forecast into next week.

The Bottom Line

Enjoy Wednesday and Thursday.

Summer heat makes another run at the region Thursday and Friday before the pattern becomes more unsettled.

Friday afternoon and evening currently represent the best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday turns noticeably cooler, and scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain possible as a weak front lingers nearby. Rain chances have increased, but based on the forecast Wednesday morning, Saturday does not look like an all-day washout.

Sunday currently looks like the quieter half of the weekend.

I'll continue watching the position of the front, Friday's thunderstorm timing and Saturday's rain chances. Those details should become clearer as we get closer to the weekend.

— Rowan County Weather