Saturday Is Trending Wetter — Here’s What We Know About the Weekend Storm Setup

Enjoy the sunshine while we have it.

Wednesday and Thursday will remain dry across the Rowan County Weather coverage area, but the pattern begins changing as we head toward Friday and especially Saturday. Confidence is increasing that the first half of the weekend will bring a much better opportunity for showers and thunderstorms across Rowan, Davie, Davidson and Cabarrus counties.

Right now, Saturday stands out as the most unsettled day of the weekend.

The Setup

High pressure remains in control through Thursday, keeping sunshine around while temperatures climb back into the lower 90s in many locations.

At the same time, humidity will begin increasing.

By Friday, a frontal boundary approaching from the north and northwest will begin interacting with a much more humid air mass across the Carolinas. That will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to begin developing, although Friday does not currently look like a washout.

The bigger change arrives Saturday.

The front is expected to slow considerably as it reaches the region. Instead of quickly sweeping through and ushering in cooler, drier air, the boundary may stall nearby or even begin lifting back north for a time.

That would keep our region on the warm and humid side of the system while providing a focus for repeated shower and thunderstorm development.

Saturday's Rain Chances

Current forecast rain chances for Saturday are:

• Rowan County: 60%
• Davie County: 60%
• Davidson County: 70%
• Cabarrus County: 60%

For Rowan, Davie and Cabarrus counties, showers and thunderstorms become more likely later Saturday afternoon. Davidson County currently has showers and thunderstorms likely mainly after 2 PM.

Those percentages do not mean it will rain for 60 or 70 percent of the day, nor do they guarantee that every location receives rain.

They do tell us that confidence is increasing that thunderstorms will be around the region Saturday.

If you have outdoor plans, Saturday is becoming a day when you'll want to have an indoor backup plan available.

Heavy Rain May Be the Bigger Concern

One part of this setup I'm watching closely is just how much moisture will be available.

Atmospheric moisture levels are expected to climb considerably Friday night into the weekend. With the frontal boundary potentially slowing or stalling nearby, individual thunderstorms could become efficient rainfall producers.

That opens the door for locally heavy downpours.

The greater concern would develop if multiple thunderstorms move across the same locations. Repeated rounds of heavy rain could result in isolated areas receiving significantly more rainfall than surrounding communities.

At this point, this does not look like a widespread flooding event. However, localized flooding could become a concern if storms repeatedly affect the same areas.

What About Severe Weather?

Right now, severe weather is not the primary concern with Saturday's setup.

There should be plenty of instability available for thunderstorms, but the wind shear needed to organize storms into a more significant severe-weather event currently appears limited.

That doesn't mean a stronger storm can't occur. Summertime thunderstorms can still produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and torrential rainfall.

But based on the information available Wednesday morning, the signal for widespread severe thunderstorms remains low.

That is something I'll continue watching as we get closer to Saturday.

Don't Expect a Strong Cooldown

Normally, talk of a cold front in September gets people's attention because it can mean cooler and less humid weather is on the way.

This front may disappoint anyone waiting for fall.

There are increasing indications that the boundary will struggle to completely clear the region. Warm and humid conditions could therefore stick around through the weekend.

And even if temperatures briefly ease because of additional clouds and rainfall Saturday, strong high pressure is expected to rebuild across the Southeast early next week.

That would send temperatures climbing again.

What I'm Watching Next

There are still details that need to come into better focus over the next couple of days.

The exact position of the frontal boundary will be important. A shift north or south could change which areas have the greatest coverage of thunderstorms and where the heaviest rainfall develops.

I'll also be watching Saturday's timing, how much instability develops, whether the severe-weather signal changes, and whether repeated thunderstorms increase the localized flooding concern.

For now, the message is straightforward:

Enjoy the sunshine Wednesday and Thursday. Heat and humidity build heading into Friday, thunderstorms begin returning, and Saturday is increasingly looking like the most unsettled day of the weekend.

If you have Saturday plans, don't cancel them based on Wednesday's forecast — but start thinking about that indoor backup plan.