Severe Thunderstorms Possible Across the Carolinas Saturday

A strong cold front moving into the region Saturday will bring an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms, including the potential for severe weather across a large portion of North Carolina.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed an area extending from the central Appalachians through much of the Carolinas and into coastal North Carolina in a Slight Risk, Level 2 of 5, for severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.

For the Rowan County Weather coverage area, Saturday will be the primary day to watch for severe weather during the Labor Day weekend.

Damaging Winds Are the Primary Threat

The main concern with Saturday's thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts.

A very warm and humid air mass will remain in place ahead of the approaching cold front. At the same time, stronger winds several thousand feet above the surface will provide enough wind shear to help thunderstorms organize into clusters.

As those clusters move east and southeast through the afternoon and evening, some could produce damaging winds.

While damaging winds are the primary concern, isolated large hail cannot be completely ruled out with the strongest thunderstorms.

When Could Storms Arrive?

There remains some uncertainty surrounding the exact timing and evolution of Saturday's thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms left over from activity Friday night could be present across portions of the Ohio Valley, West Virginia and Virginia Saturday morning. How those storms evolve will have an important influence on what happens later in the day across North Carolina.

If morning storms and associated cloud cover are more widespread, they could reduce afternoon instability in some areas. If skies recover and substantial heating occurs, the atmosphere could become considerably more unstable ahead of the approaching cold front.

Regardless of how the morning develops, the overall environment is expected to support additional thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.

For the Rowan County Weather coverage area, the period from late Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening currently appears to deserve the closest attention.

Rowan, Davie, Davidson and Cabarrus Counties

All four counties in the Rowan County Weather and Regional Forecast coverage area will need to monitor Saturday's weather.

Rowan County: Thunderstorm chances increase late Saturday afternoon and continue into Saturday night.

Davie County: Storms could begin developing during the late afternoon, with additional activity possible Saturday evening.

Davidson County: Thunderstorm chances begin increasing after 2 PM, with storms remaining possible into Saturday night.

Cabarrus County: Thunderstorm chances increase late Saturday afternoon, followed by a better chance during the evening and early overnight hours.

The exact placement and intensity of individual thunderstorms cannot be determined this far in advance. Not everyone will necessarily experience severe weather, but conditions will be favorable for some storms to become strong or severe.

A Cold Front Brings a Big Change

Saturday's storms will accompany a cold front that will finally bring an end to the prolonged stretch of hot and humid weather.

Temperatures across the region have been reaching the mid-90s, with heat index values climbing into the lower 100s. That begins to change Sunday as cooler air starts filtering into the Carolinas.

High temperatures Sunday are expected to fall into the mid to upper 80s, followed by highs generally in the lower to mid-80s on Labor Day.

Humidity levels will also decrease behind the front, making conditions feel considerably more comfortable.

Some showers and thunderstorms could linger Sunday behind the front, but the severe weather threat should be considerably lower.

Saturday Is a Weather-Aware Day

If you have outdoor plans Saturday afternoon or evening, keep a way to receive weather alerts nearby and be prepared to move indoors if thunderstorms approach.

The forecast will continue to be refined as newer data provides a clearer picture of how morning thunderstorms and cloud cover may affect the afternoon severe weather potential.

The main points heading into Saturday are:

• A Slight Risk, Level 2 of 5, is in place across the region.
• Saturday afternoon and evening will be the primary period of concern.
• Damaging wind gusts are the main severe weather threat.
• Isolated large hail is also possible.
• Morning thunderstorms and cloud cover could influence where the greatest threat develops later in the day.
• Cooler and less humid weather arrives behind the front Sunday into Labor Day.

I'll continue tracking Saturday's severe weather potential and provide updates as the forecast becomes clearer.