Atlantic Tropics Growing More Active as New Wave Has 50% Development Chance

The Atlantic basin is becoming increasingly active as we move deeper into the heart of the 2026 hurricane season. As of Sunday morning, August 23, three areas are being monitored for possible tropical or subtropical development, including a tropical wave expected to emerge from Africa that now has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression later this week.

For Rowan County and the Carolinas, none of these systems represents an immediate tropical threat. The area that deserves the most attention over the coming days is the disturbance expected to emerge into the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: 50% Development Chance

The most notable area being monitored is a tropical wave expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday.

An area of low pressure could develop in association with this wave early in the week. Environmental conditions across the eastern tropical Atlantic are expected to be marginally favorable for additional organization.

A tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of the week as the disturbance moves generally westward at approximately 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and eventually central tropical Atlantic.

As of Sunday morning, development probabilities are:

• Formation chance through 48 hours: Near 0%
• Formation chance through 7 days: 50%

This system is still several days away from potentially organizing, and there is considerable uncertainty about its eventual development and track.

At this stage, it is far too early to determine whether this system will eventually pose any threat to the United States or the Carolinas.

Because of its expected westward movement across the tropical Atlantic, however, this is a system worth monitoring during the upcoming week.

AL95: Development Possible Southeast of Bermuda

A broad area of low pressure designated AL95 is located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda.

The system continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development remains possible during the next few days.

AL95 is expected to drift northwestward Sunday before accelerating northward early this week.

Current development probabilities are:

• Formation chance through 48 hours: 20%
• Formation chance through 7 days: 30%

The expected turn toward the north will be important to watch as the system evolves, but based on the current outlook, this disturbance does not represent an immediate threat to the Carolinas.

Northeastern Atlantic: Development Chances Falling

A non-tropical area of low pressure remains several hundred miles west of Portugal, but its opportunity to acquire subtropical characteristics is quickly running out.

Shower activity associated with the system is currently limited. There remains a small opportunity for the low to briefly acquire subtropical characteristics Sunday as it moves east to east-northeast at approximately 10 to 15 mph toward Portugal and northwestern Spain.

By Sunday night, the system is expected to encounter environmental conditions that are unfavorable for additional development.

Current development probabilities are:

• Formation chance through 48 hours: 10%
• Formation chance through 7 days: 10%

Regardless of whether the system briefly becomes subtropical, its location and expected movement keep it far removed from the United States.

What This Means for Rowan County

There is no immediate tropical threat to Rowan County or the Carolinas from any of the three systems currently being monitored.

AL95 is expected to eventually accelerate northward, while the northeastern Atlantic disturbance is moving toward Europe and has only a small remaining opportunity for development.

That leaves the eastern tropical Atlantic wave as the system that will likely command the most attention over the coming days.

A 50% seven-day development probability does not mean there is a 50% chance of the system reaching the United States or affecting North Carolina. It simply represents the probability that a tropical depression or stronger tropical cyclone will form within the designated development area during that period.

Even if development occurs, where the system eventually travels will depend on atmospheric steering patterns that will become clearer with time.

Approaching the Peak of Hurricane Season

The increase in activity isn't unusual for late August.

The climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season occurs around September 10, and the period from late August through September is historically one of the busiest portions of the season.

This is also the time of year when tropical waves moving off Africa can have long stretches of warm Atlantic water available for development.

There is no reason for concern in the Carolinas based on Sunday's outlook, but it is increasingly important to keep an eye on the tropics as we move toward September.

Rowan County Weather will continue monitoring AL95 and the eastern Atlantic tropical wave throughout the week and provide updates if there are significant changes in development chances or any potential impacts to the United States or the Carolinas.