Tropical Depression Likely to Form This Week as Atlantic Development Chance Rises to 70%

The tropical Atlantic continues to become more active, and one system now appears increasingly likely to become the next tropical depression of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

As of the 8 p.m. Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, an area of low pressure several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has been given a 70% chance of tropical development during the next seven days.

A tropical depression is now considered likely to form during the latter half of this week.

Two additional areas continue to be monitored across the Atlantic, although development chances for both remain low.

Development Chances Continue to Increase

The system receiving the most attention is an area of low pressure located approximately 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently associated with the disturbance.

Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more favorable for development during the next day or two as the system moves west to west-northwest across the central tropical Atlantic.

Development probabilities have now increased to:

• 30% during the next 48 hours
• 70% during the next seven days

This represents another increase from earlier Monday.

At 2 a.m. Monday, the system had a 20% probability of development during the next 48 hours and a 60% probability during the next seven days.

More importantly, forecasters now indicate that a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week.

Still a Long Way From the United States

While development is becoming increasingly likely, this system remains thousands of miles from the southeastern United States.

Its current movement is generally toward the west to west-northwest across the central tropical Atlantic.

At this distance and this early in the system's development, it is far too soon to determine its eventual destination.

There will likely be considerable changes in forecast guidance over the coming days as the disturbance becomes better organized and, potentially, develops a defined center of circulation.

Until a well-defined center develops, computer models can also have greater difficulty determining exactly where a tropical system will travel.

For Rowan County and North Carolina, there is currently no known threat from this system.

The appropriate approach right now is simply to monitor its development.

Second Tropical Wave Has Only a 10% Chance

Another tropical wave is located approximately 900 miles east of the Windward Islands.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue to accompany this system as it moves quickly westward across the central tropical Atlantic.

Some gradual development remains possible through the middle of the week.

However, conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable as the wave approaches the Lesser Antilles later this week.

Development probabilities remain:

• 10% during the next 48 hours
• 10% during the next seven days

Unless environmental conditions change, significant development of this system appears unlikely.

Third Area Being Monitored Northeast of Bermuda

A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles northeast of Bermuda is also producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms.

Some limited development remains possible during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves quickly eastward across the central subtropical Atlantic.

However, the system is expected to encounter cooler ocean waters later this week.

Those cooler waters should end its opportunity for tropical development by Thursday.

Development probabilities are:

• 10% during the next 48 hours
• 10% during the next seven days

This system is moving eastward across the open Atlantic and currently poses no threat to the United States.

Atlantic Activity Is Beginning to Ramp Up

Seeing several disturbances across the Atlantic is not unusual as we move deeper into August.

Historically, tropical activity begins increasing rapidly during this portion of hurricane season before reaching its climatological peak around September 10.

The system southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands will clearly be the one to watch during the next several days.

The immediate question is no longer simply whether the disturbance can become better organized. With development probabilities reaching 70%, there is now increasing confidence that a tropical depression will form.

The much bigger questions — where the system eventually travels and whether it ever becomes a concern for land areas farther west — cannot be answered yet.

A 70% chance of development does not mean there is a 70% chance of the system affecting North Carolina, the East Coast or any other particular location. The percentage refers only to the probability that a tropical cyclone will form within the designated area during the next seven days.

For now, there is no reason for concern in North Carolina.

Rowan County Weather will continue monitoring the system as it crosses the Atlantic, especially if a defined circulation develops and forecast guidance begins providing a clearer picture of its longer-term track.