Severe Weather Risk Returns This Afternoon and Evening Across Rowan, Davie, and Davidson Counties

After another hot and humid start to the day, attention turns to the potential for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. While not everyone will see a storm, a few could become strong enough to produce isolated severe weather across the western Piedmont.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed Rowan, Davie, Davidson, and much of western North Carolina under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms today. A Marginal Risk means that isolated severe storms are possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

The Primary Threat: Damaging Wind Gusts

The greatest concern with today's storms will be isolated damaging wind gusts. As thunderstorms develop during the heat of the afternoon, some could produce strong downburst winds capable of knocking down tree limbs, causing isolated power outages, and blowing around unsecured outdoor objects.

While hail cannot be ruled out, it is expected to remain small and localized.

Heavy Rain and Frequent Lightning

Any thunderstorm that develops will also be capable of producing torrential rainfall and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Because storms will be scattered, rainfall amounts will vary considerably. Some neighborhoods may receive over an inch of rain in a short period, while others just a few miles away stay completely dry.

Localized flooding may develop where storms repeatedly move over the same area, especially in low-lying and poor drainage locations.

Timing

Storm development is expected to begin during the mid to late afternoon, with the greatest coverage occurring through the early evening hours before activity gradually weakens later tonight.

Why Severe Weather Isn't Expected to Be Widespread

Today's atmosphere will have plenty of heat and humidity, providing the energy needed for thunderstorms to develop. However, the upper-level winds that help organize storms remain relatively weak. As a result, most storms should remain below severe limits.

Even so, stronger thunderstorms can briefly organize as they interact with outflow boundaries from nearby storms, allowing a few cells to produce damaging wind gusts before weakening.

Looking Ahead

Today's storms are just the beginning of a more active weather pattern. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend, with the greatest coverage expected Sunday into Monday as a backdoor cold front moves into the Carolinas. Along with higher rain chances, much cooler temperatures are expected, bringing welcome relief after the recent stretch of summer heat.

Bottom Line

While today is not expected to be a widespread severe weather day, everyone across Rowan, Davie, and Davidson counties should remain weather aware this afternoon and evening.

The primary hazards include:

• Isolated damaging wind gusts
• Frequent cloud-to-ground lightning
• Torrential downpours with localized flooding
• Small hail in the strongest storms

I'll be monitoring radar throughout the afternoon and evening. If storms begin strengthening or warnings are issued for our area, I'll provide updates as quickly as possible.