Rain Chances Increase This Week — But Drought Relief Still Looks Limited

After several days of summer-like heat and dry conditions across Rowan County and the surrounding area, rain chances are finally set to increase beginning Wednesday and continuing into the upcoming weekend.

The big question many people are asking is simple: Will this actually help the drought?

Right now, the answer appears to be: somewhat — but probably not significantly.

Forecast models continue showing a wetter pattern developing during the second half of the week as a cold front approaches the Carolinas and eventually stalls nearby. This setup should allow for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday afternoon through at least Saturday.

The latest GFS model and the National Weather Service Blend of Models both suggest much of the area could receive around 0.75” to 1.25” of rainfall by the end of Saturday. Some isolated locations could certainly see higher totals where thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same area, while others may receive less depending on storm coverage and timing.

While an inch of rain would certainly help green things up temporarily and improve soil moisture, it is important to remember just how dry conditions have become over recent months.

Rowan County and much of the western Piedmont remain in extreme drought conditions. Lakes, ponds, creeks, and soil moisture levels remain well below normal, and one round of rainfall alone will not erase the long-term rainfall deficits we’ve built up this spring.

Still, this upcoming pattern is encouraging compared to the very dry weather we’ve experienced recently.

Timing Overview

Wednesday

The first isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could begin developing during the afternoon and evening hours as the front approaches from the northwest.

Thursday into Thursday Night

This currently appears to be the wettest period of the forecast. More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected as the front settles into the region.

Friday into Saturday

Rain chances may linger with scattered showers and storms possible at times as the boundary stalls nearby.

One thing that stands out in the latest model guidance is that this does not appear to be a single solid washout event. Instead, the setup currently favors multiple rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms spread out over several days.

That means there will likely still be dry periods mixed in between the rain chances.

Forecast confidence remains moderate at this time, but rainfall totals and timing details will continue changing as we move closer to the middle and end of the week.

With Rowan-Salisbury Schools graduations taking place Saturday, this will be a forecast many families will be watching closely over the next several days.