Rain Chances Return Sunday Night Into Monday — Here’s the Latest Rainfall Outlook

After a beautiful stretch of weather through the weekend, rain chances are expected to return across Rowan County, Davie County, and Davidson County late Sunday night into Monday as our next cold front approaches the region.

At this time, the overall setup still looks fairly low impact, but forecast guidance has continued to trend slightly wetter compared to earlier forecasts this week.

Timing of the Rain

The latest forecast data continues to show the best chance for showers arriving late Sunday night and continuing into Monday morning and early afternoon.

Current timing suggests:

• Spotty showers could begin developing late Sunday evening into the overnight hours
• The highest rain chances currently appear to be between around sunrise Monday and early Monday afternoon
• Rain should gradually taper off later Monday afternoon into Monday evening as the cold front moves east

While a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, the overall severe weather threat remains low at this time.

Latest Rainfall Totals

The newest model guidance continues to support light to moderate rainfall totals across the area.

Here’s how the latest guidance compares:

• The GFS model currently shows most areas receiving between around 0.25” and 0.50” of rainfall
• The Blend of Models continues to show totals closer to around 0.25” across much of the region

At this point, widespread heavy rainfall does not appear likely, and many locations may end up on the lower end of those totals depending on how showers develop.

Why Totals Are Staying Lower

Several factors are helping keep rainfall projections more limited with this system:

• The cold front is expected to move through fairly quickly
• Better instability may remain farther east of the area
• Moisture levels are improving, but not dramatically high for May standards
• Some upstream convection over the Deep South could disrupt moisture transport northward

Because of this, forecast confidence remains fairly high that this will be more of a beneficial light rainfall event rather than a widespread heavy rain setup.

Before the Rain Arrives…

The weekend itself still looks very nice across the region.

Forecast highs:

• Friday: Around 70°
• Saturday: Upper 70s
• Sunday: Lower 80s

Humidity levels will gradually increase Sunday ahead of the front, but much of the weekend should still feature pleasant outdoor conditions.

Looking Ahead

Drier weather is expected to return Tuesday behind the front, but another quick-moving system could bring another round of rain around the middle of next week.