Midweek Rain Update: Higher Totals Trending — Here’s What the Latest Data Shows

Since this morning’s update, we’ve taken another look at the latest model data — and the trend continues.

Rainfall totals are creeping higher across the region

While timing hasn’t changed much, confidence is increasing that this will be a solid, soaking rain for Rowan County and surrounding areas.

What’s New Since This Morning

The biggest change:

• Higher rainfall totals are now more likely
• Better agreement between models on widespread coverage
• Continued signal for late Wednesday into Thursday as the main window

Latest Rainfall Projections

NWS Blend of Models (More Balanced Solution)

• Widespread totals around 1.0" to 1.25"
• Consistent coverage across the Piedmont
• Suggests a steady, soaking rain event

GFS Model (Higher-End Potential)

• Shows a more focused band of heavier rain
• Some areas nearby pushing 1.5" to 2"+
• Slightly sharper gradient depending on where that band sets up

What This Means for Rowan County

Right now, Rowan County sits in a favorable zone for rainfall:

• Around 1” is becoming more likely
• Locally higher totals possible if the heavier band shifts east
• Rainfall spread out over time → better absorption, less runoff risk

This is the kind of rain that can help — but not eliminate — drought conditions

Timing Still Key

No major changes here:

• Wednesday: Scattered showers (mainly afternoon/evening)
• Wednesday Night: Rain becomes widespread
• Thursday: Periods of steady rain and storms
• Thursday Night: Gradual tapering

Severe Weather Update

The latest severe weather outlook continues to show:

• General thunderstorm risk for our area
• Higher severe risk remains well to our southwest
• Locally, the severe threat stays low for now

That said, a few stronger storms can’t be ruled out Thursday, especially with gusty winds.

Final Takeaway

• Rainfall totals are trending higher
• Confidence is increasing in a widespread soaking rain
• Best chance remains late Wednesday into Thursday
• Severe weather risk locally remains low-end

I’ll continue to track any additional changes, especially if that heavier rain band shifts closer to Rowan County.