Weekend Rain Trending All Rain — But How Much Will Rowan County See?

After earlier model runs hinted at possible wintry precipitation, confidence is now increasing that Rowan County will see an all-rain event this weekend.

The system expected to arrive late Saturday night and continue through Sunday is trending warmer, with temperatures forecast to remain above freezing throughout the event.

But the bigger question now becomes: how much rain will we actually see?

The Setup

A strong upper-level disturbance will move out of the southern Plains and across the Deep South this weekend. As it does, surface low pressure will develop and track east.

Earlier model runs showed uncertainty in the exact track of the low and how much cold air would remain in place. Some solutions suggested a brief freezing rain risk in parts of the region.

That scenario has largely faded.

Recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF — along with their ensemble guidance — have trended warmer. Even the Canadian model, which had been the coldest solution, has shifted toward a mainly rain scenario.

At this point, Rowan County is expected to remain on the warm side of the system.

Timeline

Saturday:
Partly sunny during the day. Clouds increase late.

Saturday Night:
Rain develops after 1am. Coverage increases toward daybreak Sunday.

Sunday:
Widespread rain likely. This appears to be the peak period for steady rainfall.

Sunday Night:
Rain tapers from west to east, mainly before early Monday morning.

How Much Rain?

This is where details still need refinement.

Ensemble guidance shows a range of possible outcomes. High-end scenarios suggest localized totals could approach 2 inches, while lower-end solutions keep totals closer to one inch.

At this point, a general range of 1 to 2 inches looks reasonable for much of the area, with the potential for locally higher amounts if heavier bands develop.

The heaviest rain would most likely occur Sunday.

Flooding Concerns?

Antecedent conditions are relatively dry, which helps.

However, localized heavier rainfall could lead to:

• Ponding on roadways

• Minor flooding in poor drainage areas

• Elevated levels on small streams

Main river flooding appears unlikely at this time, but smaller tributaries would respond more quickly if heavier bands develop.

What Has Changed

• Confidence has increased in an all-rain event.
• Temperatures are trending warmer compared to earlier projections.
• Ensemble guidance continues to show beneficial rainfall for most of the area.

Bottom Line

Rowan County is likely looking at a wet Sunday, but not a winter weather event.

The focus now shifts from precipitation type to rainfall totals and whether any localized heavier bands develop.

Overall, this appears to be beneficial rain for the region — something we can use heading into the spring transition.

I’ll continue refining totals and timing as we get closer.