Friday’s Wintry Mix Potential: What We Know, What’s Uncertain, and What Rowan County Should Expect

A complicated setup is taking shape for the end of the week, and while the word “winter” always gets attention in Rowan County, this is one of those situations where small changes in timing, temperature, and moisture will make a big difference. Here’s a clear breakdown of what we know right now based on early-week model trends and the latest National Weather Service discussion.

A Weak System Arrives Friday

The next weather maker approaches the region Friday morning, bringing an area of light precipitation into the Carolinas. Temperatures at the surface will be chilly to start the day, with many locations hovering in the mid to upper 30s. Meanwhile, temperatures just above the surface may warm more quickly as weak warm advection develops. This is the kind of setup that can lead to a mix of precipitation types when moisture first arrives.

Right now, the best window for any wintry mix in Rowan County looks to be early Friday morning—generally before 8 a.m.—as the first bands of moisture move in.

Why Forecast Confidence Is Still Low

Forecast models continue to disagree on the strength of the high pressure supplying cold air, the timing of moisture arrival, and how quickly the air warms aloft. This creates uncertainty in determining whether precipitation begins as light snow, a rain/snow mix, or just a cold rain.

• The GFS has trended slightly warmer and shows precipitation beginning a bit later, favoring mostly rain for the county.
• The ECMWF has been colder, keeping a shallow cold air layer in place long enough to support a brief period of snow or freezing rain in areas north of I-40 and near the Blue Ridge.
• The Canadian model is weaker with the system overall and focuses most precipitation farther south.

All three solutions illustrate why confidence remains low. Small shifts in the placement of the cold wedge could determine whether Rowan County sees flakes, a mix, or simply a chilly rain.

What Rowan County Should Expect Right Now

At this stage, impacts look minimal. Here’s the most reasonable expectation based on today’s data:

• Light precipitation arriving early Friday morning
• A brief period of snow or a rain/snow mix is possible in Rowan County
• Temperatures likely remain just warm enough to prevent travel impacts
• Precipitation transitions to cold rain by late morning
• Chilly conditions continue through the afternoon
• Another chance of precipitation may return late Saturday depending on how the coastal system develops

This does not look like a major winter event for Rowan County, but it is one to watch because the temperatures are close to the threshold where mixed precipitation can occur.

What Could Change

If the cold air damming wedge is stronger and holds longer, the chance of a wintry mix increases. If the wedge erodes more quickly or moisture arrives later, precipitation will fall primarily as rain. These are small-scale features that models typically handle better as we get closer to the event.

Expect more clarity by Wednesday night and Thursday as model solutions begin to converge.

Bottom Line

Winter weather in Rowan County often depends on timing, and Friday is shaping up to be one of those borderline setups. While a brief mix cannot be ruled out, current data leans toward mostly rain with minimal impact. Updates over the next 24 to 48 hours will provide a clearer picture of how the cold air and incoming moisture ultimately line up.