Tropical Storm Melissa — NHC Update

As of Thursday Morning

Melissa continues to struggle against strong westerly wind shear, with the storm’s structure tilted and its low-level center partially exposed about 100 miles west of the mid-level center seen on satellite imagery. Most of the stronger winds remain confined to the eastern half of the system. Current sustained winds are around 45 mph, though that may be slightly generous based on recent aircraft and surface data.

Melissa’s forward motion remains slow and erratic, with only gradual movement expected toward the north over the next 36 to 48 hours. By the weekend, steering changes should nudge Melissa westward or west-northwestward, keeping it near Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba into early next week.

While the storm is weak now, conditions are expected to become much more favorable this weekend as upper-level winds relax and the system drifts over very warm Caribbean waters. The National Hurricane Center expects significant strengthening, with rapid intensification possible by late weekend or early next week, potentially reaching major hurricane strength.

Key Messages from the NHC

1. Strengthening Expected: Melissa is forecast to become a major hurricane by late this weekend or early next week.

2. Prolonged Wind Impacts: Strong, potentially damaging winds could affect Jamaica and the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti starting Friday and lasting through the weekend.

3. Flooding Threat: Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides through the weekend.

Rowan County Weather will continue to provide updates as new information becomes available from the National Hurricane Center.