Tropical Storm Jerry — Saturday Morning Update

Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 mph (45 kt)
Movement: North at 14 mph
Location: Over the southwestern Atlantic, roughly midway between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda

Current Status

Jerry has become slightly better organized this morning. Satellite and microwave data show new deep convection near the center and hints of curved banding, a sign the system is maintaining some structure.
Winds remain asymmetric, with tropical-storm-force winds mostly confined to the eastern half of the storm.

Forecast Track & Intensity

Jerry is moving northward to north-northeastward along the western edge of a subtropical ridge.
By early next week, it will begin an eastward turn, interacting with a frontal system and eventually merging into the mid-latitude westerlies.

Moderate wind shear and cooler sea-surface temperatures will limit further strengthening. The NHC expects gradual weakening and a transition to an extratropical system within the next few days.

Key Message

Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, with life-threatening surf and rip currents expected.
These swells will spread toward the Bahamas later today.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic

Tropical Wave (Southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands):
A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continues across the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
Gradual development is possible over the next several days as it moves west-northwest to northwest at 15–20 mph.

• Formation chance through 48 hours:  Low – 10%

• Formation chance through 7 days:  Low – 30%

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