Tropical Weather Outlook — National Hurricane Center

2:00 AM EDT Thursday, October 9, 2025

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

North Atlantic (AL96):
A non-tropical area of low pressure several hundred miles west-northwest of the Azores is producing limited shower activity near its center. Some subtropical or tropical development of this system is possible over the next day or two before it moves into cooler waters and a stronger shear environment.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: Low, 10 percent

• Formation chance through 7 days: Low, 10 percent

Bay of Campeche:
A trough of low pressure has moved inland over southern Mexico, and development is not expected. Heavy rain and gusty winds will continue across portions of southern Mexico today.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: Low, near 0 percent

• Formation chance through 7 days: Low, near 0 percent

Tropical Storm Jerry — Discussion Number 8
Jerry remains a sheared tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 55 knots (65 mph). The storm’s low-level center is located near the northwestern edge of its main convective area, with the strongest winds and storms on the eastern side.

• Track: Jerry is moving west-northwest at about 17 knots, expected to turn northwest later today and pass just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands tonight.

• Forecast: Gradual strengthening is expected, and Jerry could become a hurricane by Friday or Saturday as wind shear decreases.

• Outlook: The storm should move northward through the weekend, staying well southeast of Bermuda early next week.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall could bring flash flooding to the Leeward Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and British Virgin Islands through Friday.

Stay with Rowan County Weather for continued updates on the tropics and your local forecast.

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