Tropical Weather Outlook – National Hurricane Center

Updated: 2:00 AM EDT Wednesday, October 8, 2025

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located in the central tropical Atlantic.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms.

• Some slow development is possible before the system moves inland over southern Mexico later today or early Thursday.

• Regardless of development, heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of southern Mexico through Thursday.

• Formation chances:

  • 48 hours – Low, 10 percent

  • 7 days – Low, 10 percent

Tropical Storm Jerry – Discussion #4

Jerry remains poorly organized this morning, with its low-level center still partially exposed and convection displaced south and east of the center.

• Current intensity: 45 knots (50 mph)

• Movement: West-northwest at 20 knots (23 mph)

• Location: Central tropical Atlantic

• Forecast track: Expected to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday into Friday before turning north and then northeast over the open Atlantic.

Outlook:
Jerry is expected to gradually strengthen and could become a hurricane on Thursday as it slows down and becomes more vertically organized over warm waters. Further strengthening is possible later in the week.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for parts of the northern Leeward Islands. Residents in the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should continue monitoring updates.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands within the next 48 hours.

2. Heavy rainfall Thursday into early Friday could cause flash flooding, especially in higher terrain areas of the Leeward Islands.

Forecast information courtesy of the National Hurricane Center (NHC).