Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center – 2:00 AM EDT Tuesday, October 7, 2025

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite data shows that a low-pressure area located about 1,500 miles east of the Windward Islands is becoming better defined. Showers and thunderstorms are organizing, and conditions are favorable for further development. A tropical depression or storm is likely to form within the next day as the system moves quickly west-northwest across the central Atlantic. It is expected to be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. Interests in that region should monitor its progress closely.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: High (80%)

• Formation chance through 7 days: High (90%)

Southwestern Gulf:
A trough near the Yucatan Peninsula is producing widespread showers and storms over northern Guatemala, southeastern Mexico, and nearby waters. Some slow development is possible as the system moves into the Bay of Campeche later today before reaching land again by midweek. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected across parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern Mexico over the next few days.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (10%)

• Formation chance through 7 days: Low (10%)

(Source: National Hurricane Center)