Tropical Weather Update: Tropical Storm Gabrielle Strengthening in the Atlantic

Issued by the National Hurricane Center – 8:00 AM EDT, Saturday, September 20, 2025

Active Systems

The National Hurricane Center is currently issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic

A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic, southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Slow development is possible next week as the disturbance tracks west-northwest across the Atlantic.

• Formation chance through 48 hours: near 0 percent

• Formation chance through 7 days: 20 percent

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion

As of early Saturday morning, Gabrielle remains a 45-knot (50 mph) tropical storm. Satellite data shows strong convection with very cold cloud tops and lightning, though the storm’s structure remains impacted by moderate wind shear.

• Current Movement: Northwest at 11 mph

• Track Forecast: Gabrielle will continue northwest before curving northeast, staying well east of Bermuda Sunday night into Monday. By midweek, guidance suggests Gabrielle transitions into faster mid-latitude flow, with recent model shifts pulling the track farther south than earlier forecasts.

• Intensity Forecast: With decreasing wind shear expected, Gabrielle is forecast to strengthen, likely becoming a hurricane by Sunday. Peak intensity could approach 90 knots (105 mph) within 2–3 days. Extratropical transition may be delayed due to the adjusted track, and Gabrielle is expected to remain a tropical system through at least 5 days.

Key Messages

1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass east of Bermuda late Sunday into Monday. While the core is expected to remain offshore, wind and rainfall impacts on Bermuda remain possible.

2. Swells from Gabrielle are already reaching Bermuda and will build through the weekend. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.