Tropical Storm Gabrielle Strengthening in the Atlantic

NWS National Hurricane Center – Discussion #9, 5:00 AM AST, Friday, Sept. 19, 2025

Tropical Storm Gabrielle continues to organize in the central Atlantic. The low-level center remains near the western edge of deep convection, with maximum sustained winds currently estimated at 45 knots (about 52 mph). Satellite estimates indicate the storm is holding steady but showing signs of gradual improvement.

Forecast Track

Gabrielle is moving west-northwest at 10 knots, guided by the subtropical ridge to its north. Over the next four days, the storm is expected to recurve around the western side of the ridge. Current track guidance shows Gabrielle passing at least 140 nautical miles east of Bermuda in about three days.

The National Hurricane Center notes that while the average track error at three days is about 90 nautical miles, interests in Bermuda should closely monitor Gabrielle. At present, there is a 20–25% chance of tropical storm force winds impacting the island.

Intensity Outlook

Moderate wind shear is forecast to ease by Saturday, allowing Gabrielle to strengthen. The storm is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday. Peak intensity is anticipated on day four of the forecast, before stronger shear and cooler waters bring weakening by day five. There is still uncertainty regarding when Gabrielle may transition to an extratropical system.

Key Messages

1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass east of Bermuda late Sunday into Monday. While direct impacts are uncertain, wind and rainfall effects remain possible, and residents of Bermuda should stay alert to updates.

2. Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda tonight and increase through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.