Atlantic Tropical Weather Update: Gabrielle Struggling; New Wave Off Africa Bears Watching

Issued: 8:00 AM EDT · Thursday, September 18, 2025

At a Glance

• Active system: Tropical Storm Gabrielle in the central Atlantic; currently disorganized under wind shear and dry air. National Hurricane Center

• Development area: A new tropical wave will move off Africa Friday; slow development possible through next week. 0% (48 hr) / 20% (7-day) formation chance. National Hurricane Center

• Local note (Rowan County/Carolinas): No direct U.S. impacts indicated at this time; we’ll continue to monitor official guidance. National Hurricane Center+1

Tropical Storm Gabrielle — Current Status

NHC analysis at 5:00 AM AST notes Gabrielle remains a swirl of low-level clouds with patchy deep convection in the NE and SE quadrants. Westerly vertical wind shear and entraining dry air are disrupting the storm’s structure. Initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on earlier ASCAT data, though this may be above recent satellite estimates. National Hurricane Center

Near-Term/Intensity

Hostile conditions are expected to persist for a couple of days, so little change or some weakening is possible in the short term. Late this weekend into early next week, guidance suggests a more favorable environment could allow Gabrielle to become more symmetric and strengthen. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance through 72 hours, trending toward the higher end by days 4–5. National Hurricane Center

Track

After some erratic motion during reorganization, a smoothed motion yields west-northwest near 13 kt. Steering by a subtropical ridge should keep a WNW to NW track over the next few days, followed by a turn toward the north or northeast late this weekend into early next week as it rounds the ridge. The track beyond 3 days has been nudged slightly right to align with the latest guidance. Confidence remains low in the long-range forecast; Bermuda should monitor updates. National Hurricane Center

Eastern Tropical Atlantic — New Wave

A tropical wave is expected to move off Africa by Friday morning. Slow development is possible this weekend into next week as it moves west-northwestward across the eastern/central tropical Atlantic.
Formation chances: Near 0% (48 hr) and 20% (7-day) per the 8 AM NHC Outlook. National Hurricane Center

What This Means for Our Area

• Rowan County/Carolinas: No immediate concerns from Gabrielle or the new wave. We’ll track changes and relay any shifts in guidance that affect U.S. interests. National Hurricane Center+1

• Peak season reminder: Systems can change character quickly—check back for official updates from NHC and RCW.

Sources:

• NHC Tropical Weather Outlook (8 AM EDT), formation probabilities and disturbance details. National Hurricane Center

• NHC Tropical Storm Gabrielle – Forecast Discussion #5 (5:00 AM AST), status, track, and intensity guidance. National Hurricane Center