Atlantic Hurricane Season Still on Track for Above-Normal Activity

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season remains on pace for above-normal activity, according to updates from the National Hurricane Center and NOAA. Recent observations highlight both the conditions that have limited tropical development so far and the atmospheric and oceanic factors that support an active second half of the season.

Sea Surface Temperatures Remain Warm
One of the key drivers of hurricane activity is ocean heat content. Current measurements show above-average sea surface temperatures across much of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. Warm waters provide the fuel for tropical cyclones, helping storms organize and intensify when other conditions are favorable.

Wind Shear and Dry Air Have Been Limiting Factors
During the early weeks of September, dry Saharan air and periods of stronger wind shear helped suppress storm formation. These factors explain why some tropical waves struggled to develop despite traveling across warm waters. However, forecasters note that these suppressing influences are expected to weaken in the days ahead, opening the door for more consistent development.

NOAA’s Outlook Calls for More Storms Ahead
NOAA’s most recent seasonal outlook continues to call for an above-normal number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. This aligns with the long-term forecast guidance that anticipated an active year due to warm Atlantic waters and favorable large-scale climate patterns.

What This Means Going Forward
With conditions becoming more favorable, the likelihood of new storm formations increases through the remainder of September and into October, traditionally the peak months of the Atlantic season. Coastal residents and those with interests across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico should remain alert and continue monitoring forecasts closely.