Hurricane Erin’s Track Shifts West – What It Could Mean for the East Coast

Hurricane Erin continues to move northwest over the western Atlantic, and the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) highlights some important changes. As of 8:00 AM Tuesday, Erin is located near 25.2°N, 72.2°W, about 665 miles southwest of Bermuda and 720 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The storm has maximum sustained winds near 110 mph and a central pressure of 958 mb.

Forecast Track and Intensity

Erin is currently moving northwest at 7 mph and is expected to gradually turn north-northwest today, then northward Wednesday, before accelerating northeast later in the week. The storm will pass east of the Bahamas today and tonight, then track between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda midweek.

The hurricane is forecast to maintain Category 2–3 intensity for the next couple of days. Fluctuations in strength are possible, but Erin’s more notable feature is its growing size. Hurricane-force winds extend 80 miles from the center, while tropical-storm-force winds reach out 205 miles. The expanding wind field means dangerous marine and surf conditions will stretch far from the storm’s center.

Watches and Warnings

• Tropical Storm Warning: Turks and Caicos, Southeast Bahamas

• Tropical Storm Watch: Central Bahamas, Beaufort Inlet to Duck, NC including Pamlico Sound

• Storm Surge Watch: Cape Lookout to Duck, NC

These alerts mean tropical-storm-force winds are either expected or possible in the warned and watched regions, and that dangerous storm surge could impact coastal areas of the Outer Banks beginning Wednesday night.

Hazards and Impacts

• Rainfall: Outer bands will bring 1–3 inches of rain today to the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas, with localized totals up to 8 inches and flash flooding possible. The Outer Banks could see 1–2 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 4 inches Wednesday night into Thursday.

• Winds: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in the Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas and possible in the central Bahamas today. Tropical-storm-force winds could reach the Outer Banks late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

• Surf and Rip Currents: Swells from Erin will cause life-threatening surf and rip currents along the Bahamas, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and Atlantic Canada throughout the week.

• Storm Surge: Coastal flooding of 2–4 feet is possible from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, if peak surge coincides with high tide.

What It Means for the U.S. East Coast

The most recent model guidance has shifted Erin’s track slightly west, raising the chance of direct impacts along the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coastlines. Even if the center of Erin stays offshore, its growing size ensures that dangerous surf, rip currents, and possible tropical-storm-force winds will affect parts of the East Coast in the coming days.

Key Takeaway

Erin remains a large and powerful hurricane with an expanding reach. Anyone along the U.S. East Coast, especially in North Carolina’s Outer Banks and northward into the Mid-Atlantic and New England, should monitor updates closely. The combination of tropical storm conditions, storm surge potential, and hazardous surf makes this a storm to watch carefully as it tracks northward this week.

For official updates, visit hurricanes.gov.