ENSO Update: Neutral Conditions for Now, La Niña Still Possible Later This Year

The latest update from the Climate Prediction Center says we’re still in neutral conditions in the Pacific Ocean — meaning we don’t have El Niño or La Niña right now.

What that means:

• Water temperatures in the Pacific are close to normal.

• The atmosphere is behaving like it usually does this time of year.

• No strong push toward wetter or drier patterns from El Niño or La Niña right now.

The forecast:

• Through summer: Neutral is most likely (about a 56% chance).

• This fall and winter: There’s a growing chance La Niña could develop, but it’s still uncertain.

Why it matters for us:
When conditions are neutral, it’s harder to predict seasonal weather far in advance. But if La Niña does form later this year, it could mean:

• A more active Atlantic hurricane season.

• Possible changes in winter patterns across the U.S.

Bottom line: We’re in a “wait and see” mode. Neutral for now, but we’ll be watching the Pacific closely for signs of La Niña.