Tracking AL92: What the Developing System Could Mean for the Carolinas

Posted July 4, 2025

An area of low pressure designated AL92 by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is drawing increased attention this Independence Day, as it shows signs of development off the southeast U.S. coast. As of the 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the system was located about 100 miles off the northeast Florida coast and producing increasing showers and thunderstorms.

Development Outlook
The NHC gives this system a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression over the next 48 hours. Environmental conditions are described as marginally favorable, but a brief window exists for organization today or Saturday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today to help determine its structure and potential development.

Track and Timing
The system is expected to drift slowly northward and move inland over the southeastern U.S. sometime Saturday night or early Sunday. Model guidance suggests it may hug or approach the Carolina coast before weakening inland. Even if AL92 does not fully develop into a named storm, it may still bring meaningful weather impacts to parts of the Carolinas.

Impacts for the Carolinas
The primary concern from this system is rainfall:

• Areas of west-central and southwestern Florida may see heavy rain through early Saturday.

• Coastal areas of the Carolinas, including parts of eastern North and South Carolina, could begin to see impacts by late Saturday and into Sunday.

• For inland areas like Rowan County, any direct impacts will depend on the strength and track of the system, but increased moisture and storm chances are likely by Sunday.

Local Outlook for Rowan County
While today and Saturday are expected to remain dry, forecast models indicate a return of afternoon and evening shower and storm chances by Sunday, continuing into early next week. These rain chances are partly due to the influence of AL92 as it lifts north.

What We're Watching

• Will AL92 organize into a named storm or remain a low-pressure disturbance?

• How far north and west will the moisture reach?

• Could any areas experience localized flooding if heavy bands of rain develop?

At this time, no watches or warnings are in effect for Rowan County, but we are closely monitoring developments and will provide updates if impacts become more certain.

Stay Connected
Continue checking Rowan County Weather for updates as more information becomes available from the National Hurricane Center and local forecast offices.