NOAA Predicts Above-Normal 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasting an above-normal level of activity. The season officially runs from June 1 through November 30.

Forecast Highlights

NOAA's 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook includes:

• 13 to 19 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)

• 6 to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)

• 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher; winds of 111 mph or higher)

This forecast reflects a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

Factors Influencing the Forecast

Several key factors contribute to the anticipated above-normal activity:

• Warm Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures: Above-average temperatures in the Atlantic's Main Development Region provide more energy for storm formation and intensification.

• ENSO-Neutral Conditions: The current neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neither suppresses nor enhances hurricane activity, allowing other favorable conditions to dominate.

• Weaker Trade Winds and Wind Shear: Reduced trade winds and lower vertical wind shear in the Atlantic basin create an environment more conducive to tropical cyclone development.

• Active West African Monsoon: An enhanced monsoon can lead to more frequent and stronger tropical waves, which can develop into tropical storms and hurricanes as they move westward.

Implications for Coastal and Inland Areas

While NOAA's outlook does not predict specific landfall locations, an above-normal season increases the likelihood of storms impacting coastal and even inland regions. Residents in hurricane-prone areas, including those along the Gulf and East Coasts, should remain vigilant and prepared throughout the season.

Preparedness Recommendations

NOAA advises the following steps to prepare for the hurricane season:

• Review and Update Emergency Plans: Ensure that evacuation routes are known and that all family members understand the plan.

• Assemble Emergency Supplies: Stock up on essentials such as non-perishable food, water, medications, batteries, and important documents.

• Stay Informed: Monitor weather updates from reliable sources and sign up for local alerts.

• Strengthen Home Defenses: Inspect and reinforce structures to withstand potential storm impacts.

NOAA emphasizes that it only takes one storm to significantly impact a community, regardless of the overall activity forecast. Therefore, early preparation is crucial.

For more information, visit NOAA’s official website: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season