Snow flurries possible Tuesday afternoon and evening but will we see accumulation?

We know that by late this evening arctic cold air from Siberia will be over the county and most of the country. The question is could we get snow while the cold air is here? There is certainly a chance to see some snow flurries on Tuesday afternoon and evening. With the ground being so cold if we do get any snow, it will accumulate pretty quickly. The battle comes down to the track of the system and dry air. If the track is too far east. We get nothing. If the air happens to be so dry that the snow evaporates from the cloud to the ground, we get nothing. It could happen; we saw it with last week's system. How many times did you look at the radar on your phone and see snow on the radar but nothing on the ground? Thats because the snow was evaporating on the way down and never made it to the ground. 

Before we get into how much snowfall we could see. Let's take a look at the probability off impacts we could see on the roadways during the overnight hours of Tuesday into Wednesday morning. 

The image above is showing we have a 10 - 30% chance of seeing impacts from wintry weather on the roadways with the possibility of accumulating snowfall Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. While this number doesn't appear to be high the important thing to note is the potential is there that roadways could become impacted by accumulating snowfall. 

The image above is model data from the Blend of Models indicating we could see a trace to an inch of snowfall around the county by Wednesday morning. The important thing to note here is the gradient and how sharp it is. If the air is dry enough as I have stated we could not see a thing at all. 

The last image that I will share in this post is from what we call the SREF model (Short Range Ensemble) This model takes into account the potential accumulation of all models and comes up with a mean (average) of how much accumulation we could see. This model is essentially showing a dusting to a trace of snowfall around the county as it believes the drier air will win out. 

The important thing to foucs on for the next few days is that is is going to be extremely cold! Anything beyond that is still a toss up!