Rain is in the forecast for Saturday but how much could we see?

Rain is in the forecast this weekend mainly for Saturday and the morning hours of Sunday. Let's take a quick look at timing and how much to expect. 

The image above is from the NAM model one of the mid-range models we use to help forecast the weather. Please note this is simply a model and in no way is the forecast but possible aid in timing out rain for Saturday and how much accumulation we could see. This is for 7am Saturday morning and as you can see for the mountains and the areas with blue over them the model is indicating snow showers will be likely for the mountains of western North Carolina and the higher elevations. Rain is likely for the foothills and piedmont. 

By 10am Saturday morning the NAM is showing rain moving through the county and heading east. Some of the rain could be moderate at times. The good news is that rain does not appear to be widespread, but we could see some persistent drizzle or mist which doesn't get indicated on the model. 

The above image from the NAM model is indicating we will not see much in terms of accumulation for rainfall Saturday into Sunday showing most of the heavier totals for the foothills and mountains. With Rowan County only seeing around a tenth of an inch. 

When I put together my forecast, I utilize ensemble forecasting which takes all of the models into account. You take models that aren't matching up with current conditions and are way off from what others are indicating and you remove those from the ensemble for that period. You keep the models that are pretty close or in sync to current conditions and get a mean total for potential accumulations and conditions. In the Blend of Models from the image above we are also seeing around a tenth of an inch of rainfall for the county overall. 

With that said I would be comfortable forecasting a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rainfall around the county Saturday as it is possible some locations could get longer periods of moderate rainfall as the system moves through. 

Continue to stick with Rowan County Weather for the latest on weather impacts around the county and the area.