Tropical Depression Ten continues to develop near the Yucatan early this morning.

Tropical Depression Ten continues to develop near the Yucatan early this morning. It is expected to become a tropical storm later today before moving northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. It may bring impacts to the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia Wednesday into Thursday.

The tropical depression should become a Tropical Storm (most likely Idalia) later today. The system will move northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico Monday through Tuesday, likely becoming a hurricane on Tuesday. Impacts to the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia from this system remain uncertain but would likely occur Wednesday into Thursday.

2 to 4 inches of rain are expected with thunderstorms developing along a front stalling across the region today through Tuesday. Localized 5+ inch totals are possible near the southern Blue Ridge Mountains. Isolated flooding will be possible well ahead of the tropical system. Damaging wind gusts will be possible with some of these thunderstorms. If the tropical system impacts our area, the primary threat will be additional heavy rainfall and more widespread flooding. Gusty winds, and possibly an isolated tornado or two, cannot be ruled out. This will depend highly on the track, so it is too early to determine the exact impacts.

Significant uncertainty remains in the forecast track. If the system tracks east toward the coast, impacts will be greatly reduced in our area. If the system tracks farther west, we can expect more rain and flooding, stronger winds, and a better chance of tornadoes.

The current forecast calls for drying conditions late this week into the weekend as the tropical system pulls away slowly to the northeast.